Austin boys, Ben, ty, gray ect inside please!
09-21-2005, 06:54 PM
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Austin boys, Ben, ty, gray ect inside please! No ones phones work so this will have to be the main form of talking, so whats going on out there?
Also looking for Crager, Joe, and Matt Powell to check in. Hit us up cause the phones could be down for some time.
_Zac
Also looking for Crager, Joe, and Matt Powell to check in. Hit us up cause the phones could be down for some time.
_Zac
09-21-2005, 07:34 PM
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firehawko7 checkhibn in!!! hope de old
lT1 fllooodsz and dies....then i can gst a
lS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHAT TIME IZ UT???????????????????????????// MILLER TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !
lT1 fllooodsz and dies....then i can gst a
lS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHAT TIME IZ UT???????????????????????????// MILLER TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !
09-21-2005, 08:03 PM
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Originally Posted by _Zac
No ones phones work so this will have to be the main form of talking, so whats going on out there?
Also looking for Crager, Joe, and Matt Powell to check in. Hit us up cause the phones could be down for some time.
_Zac
Also looking for Crager, Joe, and Matt Powell to check in. Hit us up cause the phones could be down for some time.
_Zac
Call my house phone man.
Peace,
Craig.
09-21-2005, 09:36 PM
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Thomas and I made it to Austin last night in just over 2 hours probably the best time I've ever made on the trip, and we even stoped and got micky D's... Matty I hope you guys are leaving it doesn't look too good man you guys are about 300 yards off of clear creek. 
They are saying almost nowhere is safe. Matt let me know what you plan to do man Thomas and I are worried about yall staying at that house.
They are saying almost nowhere is safe. Matt let me know what you plan to do man Thomas and I are worried about yall staying at that house.
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09-21-2005, 09:46 PM
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Originally Posted by NVR4GET
Im hear waiting to fly my kites, Me and Chris are going surfing.
Matt
Matt
Thomas... In loveing memory of my best friend Chris "I'm A Fucktard" Powell.
P.S. While you are getting **** blitzed by Rita... The only **** you will have had in a while I'll be on Halo.
P.P.S. Use Zacs $300.00 car cover as a protective cocoon.
09-21-2005, 11:00 PM
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I still can't believe you guys are staying... (powells)
Gray got in today. If you guys get bored tomorrow call gray because him and matt (mass) are just going to be hanging out. After my test and quiz on friday, I'll be ready to do some partying. Hurrican party ova here!
edit: Looks like my house might get bonesawed pretty bad... 2 miles from the coast might not be enough.
Gray got in today. If you guys get bored tomorrow call gray because him and matt (mass) are just going to be hanging out. After my test and quiz on friday, I'll be ready to do some partying. Hurrican party ova here!
edit: Looks like my house might get bonesawed pretty bad... 2 miles from the coast might not be enough.
Last edited by UTzo6; 09-21-2005 at 11:08 PM.
09-22-2005, 12:50 AM
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 220311
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A
DROPSONDE IN THE EYE OF RITA AROUND 21/2309Z RECORDED A PRESSURE OF
899 MB WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 32 KT. ANYTHING BELOW 10 KT IS
USUALLY CONSIDERED A VALID PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THUMB
RULE IS TO DECREASE THE PRESSURE 1 MB FOR EVERY 10 KT ABOVE THAT
WIND SPEED. IN THIS CASE... RITA'S CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 897 MB...MAKING IT THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LAST RECON PASS ONLY INDICATED
2 REPORTS OF 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 157 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. HOWEVER... ODT VALUES OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS HAVE AVERAGED
BETWEEN T7.3/149 KT AND T7.4/152 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 150 KT. THE PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR AN 897
MB PRESSURE IS 160 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. RITA HAS ACTUALLY MADE A
LARGE WOBBLE AND SLOWED TO A 285/06 KT MOTION THE PAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUCH MOTION CHANGES...WHICH ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR
EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING TROPICAL CYCLONES AS THE INNER CORE WIND
FIELD AND CONVECTIVE PATTERN REORGANIZES...ARE CONSIDERED TEMPORARY
AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RESUME A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE
18Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS... WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DOING THEIR USUAL
AFTERNOON EASTWARD SHIFT. THOSE MODELS NOW BRING RITA ACROSS THE
HOUSTON-GALVESTON AREA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OTHER
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE STABILIZED THEIR FORECAST TRACKS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE CONSENSUS HAVING SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT NOT AS
FAR AS THE GFS/GFDL MODELS...SINCE IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON WEAKENING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BASED 22/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATING 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN IS PERFECT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND A THIRD WEAK OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTHWEST. THIS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE PATTERN...COMBINED WITH
30-31C SSTS...HAS ALLOWED RITA'S EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING TO OCCUR. THE
EYE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE WARM GULF LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... IF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DOES NOT INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE CURRENT THREE OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY
MAINLY A LARGE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN. THIS SHOULD INDUCE SOME
STEADY WEAKENING...BUT THAT TYPE OF OUTFLOW PATTERN...COUPLED WITH
EXPECTED LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS...IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. OF COURSE...
INTERNAL DYNAMICS ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT THE INTENSITY OF A
HURRICANE WILL BE... AND WE HAVE NO SKILL IN FORECASTING EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES BEYOND ABOUT 6-12 HOURS...AT BEST. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE TREND OF THE SHIPS MODEL...ONLY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATED BY THE
NOGAPS...CANADIAN...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECASTER STEWART
Forecast so far is looking alright.. But it will probably get worse and aim right for me now!!
WTNT43 KNHC 220311
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A
DROPSONDE IN THE EYE OF RITA AROUND 21/2309Z RECORDED A PRESSURE OF
899 MB WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 32 KT. ANYTHING BELOW 10 KT IS
USUALLY CONSIDERED A VALID PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THUMB
RULE IS TO DECREASE THE PRESSURE 1 MB FOR EVERY 10 KT ABOVE THAT
WIND SPEED. IN THIS CASE... RITA'S CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 897 MB...MAKING IT THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LAST RECON PASS ONLY INDICATED
2 REPORTS OF 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 157 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. HOWEVER... ODT VALUES OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS HAVE AVERAGED
BETWEEN T7.3/149 KT AND T7.4/152 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 150 KT. THE PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR AN 897
MB PRESSURE IS 160 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. RITA HAS ACTUALLY MADE A
LARGE WOBBLE AND SLOWED TO A 285/06 KT MOTION THE PAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUCH MOTION CHANGES...WHICH ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR
EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING TROPICAL CYCLONES AS THE INNER CORE WIND
FIELD AND CONVECTIVE PATTERN REORGANIZES...ARE CONSIDERED TEMPORARY
AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RESUME A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE
18Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS... WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DOING THEIR USUAL
AFTERNOON EASTWARD SHIFT. THOSE MODELS NOW BRING RITA ACROSS THE
HOUSTON-GALVESTON AREA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OTHER
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE STABILIZED THEIR FORECAST TRACKS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE CONSENSUS HAVING SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT NOT AS
FAR AS THE GFS/GFDL MODELS...SINCE IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON WEAKENING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BASED 22/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATING 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN IS PERFECT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND A THIRD WEAK OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTHWEST. THIS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE PATTERN...COMBINED WITH
30-31C SSTS...HAS ALLOWED RITA'S EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING TO OCCUR. THE
EYE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE WARM GULF LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... IF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DOES NOT INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE CURRENT THREE OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY
MAINLY A LARGE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN. THIS SHOULD INDUCE SOME
STEADY WEAKENING...BUT THAT TYPE OF OUTFLOW PATTERN...COUPLED WITH
EXPECTED LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS...IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. OF COURSE...
INTERNAL DYNAMICS ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT THE INTENSITY OF A
HURRICANE WILL BE... AND WE HAVE NO SKILL IN FORECASTING EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES BEYOND ABOUT 6-12 HOURS...AT BEST. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE TREND OF THE SHIPS MODEL...ONLY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATED BY THE
NOGAPS...CANADIAN...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECASTER STEWART
Forecast so far is looking alright.. But it will probably get worse and aim right for me now!!
