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I just purchased mine recently. 30th Anniversary model, very straight and clean, but higher miles (115,000). I've lusted after a LS-1 TA since a friend got his new 2002. I really like the look, peering out over that bulging hood and front fenders. I bought it to enjoy it now. I would hope they would go up in value but mine probably has too many miles to benefit from that. I came from the generation of Chevelle 396's and 454's, 455 SD's, etc. We bought them for not too much money when they were used and when we were done with them we sold them for next to nothing. We NEVER thought they would ever be worth much. Time will tell if the 4th gen F-bodies will get there. But I do know that every day, there are fewer and fewer of them around. Wrecks, rust, poor care all take their toll.
I came from the generation of Chevelle 396's and 454's, 455 SD's, etc. We bought them for not too much money when they were used and when we were done with them we sold them for next to nothing. We NEVER thought they would ever be worth much. Time will tell if the 4th gen F-bodies will get there. But I do know that every day, there are fewer and fewer of them around. Wrecks, rust, poor care all take their toll.
Those 396/454/455 optioned cars were a rarity compared to the tons of I6 and small displacement V8 variants that were produced, and rust was exponentially more of an issue with those older cars; their bodies just weren't built to last when out in the weather. Several factors with those are just not present with the 4th gens. For one, all LS1 models have the same general performance and no special optional V8. And they endure the elements much better. Newer performance cars keep getting faster, so the biggest market for the 4th gens is the group looking for affordable performance. There will always be a niche following for collector quality examples, but the demand for those will likely never match or exceed the supply - at least not enough to cause massive price spikes.
Something like this was touched on earlier in the thread.
Now in middle age, I don't expect to have 50 driving years left in me. But more importantly, I don't see any of this happening in the next several decades.
Keep in mind that as safety regulations and technology have improved in the past, there has never been a mandate to retrofit or outlaw cars built prior to such improvements. My '71 is still perfectly legal to operate on public roadways without shoulder belts, or air bags, or 5mph bumpers, or a rear-view camera, or anything else modern. Even the EPA can't touch it. It's a big leap to expect that this trend will suddenly change and that older, non-self driving cars will become illegal in just a few decades. Now, I could see a time where the feds will force OEMs to equip every new car with some version of this technology, but that won't translate into an automatic mandate to outlaw older tech on pre-existing cars. You can look at emissions and MPG requirements as an excellent example of how these things progress; there are federal regulations for this, and OEMs must meet them to offer a passenger vehicle to the public. But once in the hands of a private owner, the only entity that stands in the way of making that vehicle completely devoid of emissions equipment are state agencies and any applicable local testing. Vehicle registration is a matter of state government, so the feds won't be getting involved in what is or is not legal to register in a given state. Therefore, you might see a more liberal and crowded state push for something like a banning of human controlled cars, but you likely won't see this in all areas anytime in the foreseeable future.
Additionally, as the average car on US roads is 11-12 years old today, and that average is trending longer, it would be well over a decade before the majority of new cars were self-driving - even if everything on the new car lots today was equipped with totally automated driving. And we're nowhere near that point as of the 2017 model year. Maybe in another decade we might be near such a point, but then the average car on US roadways might be as old as 13-14 years. So then you're looking at ~25 years from today before fully automated vehicles are in the majority. And that's still not likely to cause a total ban on pre-existing non-automated cars as any such thing would be a matter of local/state laws and enforcement, therefore vary from region to region.
Now if we're talking ~100 years from now, well I won't speculate that far out, nor will I be here to see it.
I think the likely future of the internal combustion engine has all the potential to be like a Steven King movie.
Yes, I know the past precedents imply older cars are exempt from new safety regulations. My 72 vette is in may ways similar to your 71.
Yet, this is exactly the sort of issue a grand standing, ignorant, Ralph Nader like, left wing, tree hugged politician could and likely will use to make politic hay in the not so distant future. They wil be all over 30,000+ vehicle related deaths a year screaming we have to do something about the carnage on the highways.
Two weeks ago one of my girfriend's close friends lost her niece in a single vehicle accident. Many poor decisions by the 23 year driver resulted in her death. Legally drunk, using cell phone snap chatting, posting to facebook and texting. Appears she dropped her phone, unfastened her seat belt, reached down to get the phone and crashed into a tree.
Very tragic set of events.
I'm sure many American's would love to have a self driving car so they can text, facebook, watch movies, drive drunk, drive high, drive sleep deprived, eat, shave, put on make up and dozens of other actives that result in impaired or distracted driving - and get away with it safely. Probably 8 out of 10 adults I know don't like driving. They seem like the type that will step up to buy or lease or do a shared-car- ownership to get out of driving ASAP and into a driverless car. I think the trend of older and older cars on the road has potential to reverse.
(Of course, I'm keeping my 72 vette owned 33 years, 91 RS owned 26 years & 99 TA owned 18 years - regardless of what happens)
Some politician will claim all of the tragedies like this can be prevented if we all give up driving and accept self driving cars. Sure its a few years off but I expect we will face a steady campaign from the left very soon. It will be another decisive issue to rally support against the carbon emitting ICE powered car, truck & suv. The issue falls right into place with their other freedom restricting agendas.
Insurance companies will likely jump on the bandwagon to set rates for human driven vehicles significantly higher than driverless vehicles in the nost so distant future.
I hope I'm wrong about coming restrictions for the human driven ICE powered car, truck & suv. I don't see the future as bright for currsnt classic cars OR the potential future classic cars. I hope my assessment is invalid.
FWIW - the mean looking LS1 TA/WS6/Firehawks probably have real potential to appreciate. Over the last two months 3 people asked about buying my 99, I was very surprised. Two potential buyers were early 20s and the other mid40s.
Last edited by 99 Black Bird T/A; 12-05-2016 at 11:16 PM.
I think the likely future of the internal combustion engine has all the potential to be like a Steven King movie.
Yes, I know the past precedents imply older cars are exempt from new safety regulations. My 72 vette is in may ways similar to your 71.
Yet, this is exactly the sort of issue a grand standing, ignorant, Ralph Nader like, left wing, tree hugged politician could and likely will use to make politic hay in the not so distant future. They wil be all over 30,000+ vehicle related deaths a year screaming we have to do something about the carnage on the highways.
Two weeks ago one of my girfriend's close friends lost her niece in a single vehicle accident. Many poor decisions by the 23 year driver resulted in her death. Legally drunk, using cell phone snap chatting, posting to facebook and texting. Appears she dropped her phone, unfastened her seat belt, reached down to get the phone and crashed into a tree.
Very tragic set of events.
I'm sure many American's would love to have a self driving car so they can text, facebook, watch movies, drive drunk, drive high, drive sleep deprived, eat, shave, put on make up and dozens of other actives that result in impaired or distracted driving - and get away with it safely. Probably 8 out of 10 adults I know don't like driving. They seem like the type that will step up to buy or lease or do a shared-car- ownership to get out of driving ASAP and into a driverless car. I think the trend of older and older cars on the road has potential to reverse.
(Of course, I'm keeping my 72 vette owned 33 years, 91 RS owned 26 years & 99 TA owned 18 years - regardless of what happens)
Some politician will claim all of the tragedies like this can be prevented if we all give up driving and accept self driving cars. Sure its a few years off but I expect we will face a steady campaign from the left very soon. It will be another decisive issue to rally support against the carbon emitting ICE powered car, truck & suv. The issue falls right into place with their other freedom restricting agendas.
Insurance companies will likely jump on the bandwagon to set rates for human driven vehicles significantly higher than driverless vehicles in the nost so distant future.
I hope I'm wrong about coming restrictions for the human driven ICE powered car, truck & suv. I don't see the future as bright for currsnt classic cars OR the potential future classic cars. I hope my assessment is invalid.
FWIW - the mean looking LS1 TA/WS6/Firehawks probably have real potential to appreciate. Over the last two months 3 people asked about buying my 99, I was very surprised. Two potential buyers were early 20s and the other mid40s.
Cars that already exist won't be subject to revised federal regulations passed after their construction - all the Feds can/will mandate is standards for new engine/chassis configurations offered to the public by the OEMs.
Look at the current push for super low level emissions, and super high level MPG. The federal MPG standards that will be required for new cars in the next 10 years are ridiculous IMO (hopefully this will be repealed, otherwise the tech to make it possible will likely be prohibitively expensive, and/or result in pieces of unreliable/boring transportation-appliance garbage....but that's another topic.) However nothing about those regulations includes a national ban on dirty, dino-burning classic cars such as your '72 or my '71 - and safety issues seem to take a back burner to environmental concerns in many of these leftist lobbying efforts, so I think we'd see a push for banning on an environmental level long before anything about "safety", and such has not yet come to pass.
In any event, auto-driving tech isn't even mainstream yet. We've had hybrid cars for nearly two decades now, and they still only account for a small percentage of new cars sales annually. Major changes typically don't saturate the automotive market overnight. What might be seen first is something like insurance company discounts for having this equipment, and perhaps some left-coast major cities might push or encourage it via tax breaks (or penalties/fees for NOT having it), or even regionally specific laws, after it becomes more mainstream. All of that will unfold over many years, during which time the technology will become more reliable and common. Eventually all new cars may have this, but that doesn't mean they won't also have a manual mode. And by that point, the remainder of cars on the road without this tech will be as small as the amount of cars on the road without shoulder belts today - simply not enough to require action or lead to public outcry (same reason our 45 year old cars are not targeted for emissions standards today.)
A change like this is much more likely to trickle down from the top (meaning regulations for new cars, imposed by the Feds on OEMs prior to engine/chassis configuration approval) through "voluntary turnover", as motorists discard their aging daily drivers, rather than banning of pre-existing vehicles. The fight for a sudden nationwide ban would be too difficult and complicated when simply allowing time to take its natural course will have nearly the same effect in the end.
Ultimately, if we were teens or 20-somethings there might be more cause for concern, but I think we are both old enough that our keys will be taken away by a doctor long before congress.
I don't think self driving cars would honesty take off very well in todays world, for one not only would they be stupid expensive for the first few years but it takes the best part out of cars for us gearheads, driving. Theres millions of us around the nation and many just like me have no issues with just hopping in the car and driving around, not going anywhere just cruising or "hunting" for those random street encounters. With a self driving car you also lose the point in modding the car, any self driven car will obey all traffic laws including speed limits and will accelerate in moderation, meaning performance from a self driving car would be a moot point to producers of the cars so they wouldn't even have to try, like a prius engine or something similar in an attempt to remove you from the entire act all together. A world filled with self driving slow *** basic model cars is not the future we want and major manufacturers make millions from the gearheads releasing performance vehicles and they know this. At least in our generation I don't think this will ever really take off.
Lots of info in this thread. Is there a numbers matching scenario for these cars. My 55 Belair convertible, as well as my 70 Nova, had the VIN stamped in the engine, tranny , etc. Is there a way to verify originality on the 2002 TransAm's? Reason I ask is that I have an 02 convertible, one owner car, that is supposedly 1 of 9. Engine went south so I replaced it rather than rebuild. Is it worth keeping the original engine or is it a large paperweight?
I'm certainly not an expert on this but if your car is low mileage and you intend to keep it that way, 20 years from now, it will probably be worth having the numbers matching engine.
If you drive 2000 miles a year for the next 20 years that's another 40,000 miles. The only cars gonna be priced near original sticker price in 20 years are sub 50K ones.
Reason I ask is that I have an 02 convertible, one owner car, that is supposedly 1 of 9. Engine went south so I replaced it rather than rebuild. Is it worth keeping the original engine or is it a large paperweight?
Most of these cars are seemingly "rare" if you start counting insignificant options. There isn't any real market value in that with these cars, and there likely won't be in the future unless the options that make it rare are significant and also very desirable (such as SOM or HO exterior colors, assuming current popular trends remain popular in the future.)
Originally Posted by wannafbody
If you drive 2000 miles a year for the next 20 years that's another 40,000 miles. The only cars gonna be priced near original sticker price in 20 years are sub 50K ones.
Honestly, even that might be a bit too liberal. So many of these cars have been tucked away, everything from CETAs to 30th Ann. cars to basic Firehawks/WS6s/SSs, that getting near/at/above original MSRP might be something only the sub-10 or 20k mile cars can do, if even that. Of course, if massive inflation takes place then future values of everything will be skewed.
I have always wondered why parts for these cars aren't be reproduced like 2nd gen's. After trying to sell ebony seats, door panels and ws6 wheels I can see why. Either 4th gen owners are really poor/cheap or they are not as popular as we think.
I don't believe that anything after 1987 will never appreciate like the old muscle cars. The GN was the last great american car made that will and has achieved collectibility status.
Even the 89 TTA isn't comparable to a simple 70 TA.
Food for thought. Recently an over restored (full leather interior), non original 55 VW convertible (every possible option added), with no mention of mileage, sold for $75,000 at auction. I realize it is 60+ years old. It had the original style motor with no power and a balky transmission. I think the TV show said there were something like 17,000 produced. Certainly not as rare as some 4th gen production numbers. Unfortunately, I probably won't be around when my 4th gen cars are 60 years old.
I have always wondered why parts for these cars aren't be reproduced like 2nd gen's.
I've talked to managers at Classic Industries about this. After GM and their suppliers discontinue parts, other companies step up and buy the tooling to make them for the aftermarket. There is always a lag of multiple years in this process as the new old stock sells out, the used part market is depleted, and demand for the new parts (at higher price points) builds up. Once those scales tip, the parts hit the market/catalogs.
We're just in that drought period for many 4th gen parts, but if you scan the aftermarket catalogs, new OEM parts are slowly coming online.
So ^ in order to correlate this to desirability of a car, I think you'd have to observe parts coming back on to the market and then being pulled off or discontinued due to lack of demand.
Certain cars, even ones that aren't "traditionally popular" among enthusiasts, such as the '55 VW mentioned above, can enjoy price spikes simply because of their almost non-existent current supply levels - so any demand at all can cause a quick bidding war. 17,000 units built in 1955 would be an extremely rare car today, especially because nothing back then was highly weather resistant and ones that survived were mostly the result of unplanned/accidental storage events (someone died, car was forgotten in a barn, etc.) People back then generally didn't have the mindset of stashing cars for future value, unlike today where the influence of dramatic muscle car price spikes of the '90s led to some predictive behavior (such as some ~20 year old 4th gens that have been stored and aren't even broken in yet - some with 3 or 4 digit mileage.) And that "predictive behavior" is a major reason why massive price spikes are unlikely - meaning there is/will be plenty of nice examples in the future for the niche following that will comprise demand.
Originally Posted by 30thanniv
Either 4th gen owners are really poor/cheap or they are not as popular as we think.
The dynamics just aren't present for these cars to likely ever appreciate the way that some old classics have. Several key factors are not in favor of BIG future value for these.
Not sure about 4th gens but I'm planning on my all original 1982 down to the air filter 7.5k mile car being worth a pretty penny one day. Never seen water let alone rain.
Not sure about 4th gens but I'm planning on my all original 1982 down to the air filter 7.5k mile car being worth a pretty penny one day. Never seen water let alone rain.
That '82 is nice, probably one of the nicest early 3rd gen Trans Ams left in the world. Perhaps there might be a few 15th Anniversary cars that were stashed away with even less mileage, but yours is still impressive either way. Not sure if the early 3rd gens will ever command much value though (the low performance 305 is a big ding, not to mention the lack of a Pontiac engine - something that keeps a lot of the big money Pontiac collectors away from the 3rd and 4th gens in general.) I imagine that the '89 TTA will continue to represent the peak of collector value in terms of 3rd gen Trans Ams, then followed by #1 condition '91-'92 L98 examples. I certainly wouldn't count on any of them as a retirement fund though.
Originally Posted by Blasius02
I also have a 2002 ws6 with 30k miles
The mileage on this one is probably too high for it to be in the top value tier of 4th gen WS6 cars any time in the foreseeable future. You can still find these with about half that mileage or less at just about any moment somewhere in the country.
Beautiful cars Blasius02
I had several friends buy that '82 when it first came out and each car lived in the shop more than on the road. That crossfire injection was a complete mystery to the dealership mechanics at the time. When I saw what was happening to their cars I instead bought a new '82 Mustang GT with the 5.0L for $9,600. No issues. After they had to lay out around $11k - $12k (if I remember right) they had so much frustration that they sold their cars within 2 years. So for you to have an ultra low mileage survivor is even that more remarkable. I imagine it now runs wonderfully and would bring $$ over the original sticker. I would hope so anyway.
12-05-2016, 07:03 PM
