Hey guys. I was kinda wondering on how many do you think gm will actually build, v6s, v8s, ect. Also what caught my attention was apearently the pre orders for the the srt 8 models of the upcoming challenger are more than what dodge is supposed to produce. How do you think gm will take this into consideration when considering production numbers.

 

Thats an easy question. GM will only produce so many. GM will be looking at the Camaro as a long term deal not just a one of two year build. With all the money involved in this project I would not be surprised if GM wants to keep this program running through 2015 or 2020. So to say it simply, GM will under produce so as to fill only part of the orders. The first year's batch will be a base model Z28 and V6 car lineup with the possibility of specialty models such as verts, pace cars, and others in year 2 to keep building demand. Think of it this way, if Nintendo has shipped enough Wii's to fill demand, how long would there be a demand for Wii's? Even after a year + demand for Wii's is great enough that people are still paying $50-100 over retail to get one off Ebay, and thats if they are lucky enough to get one. The same is with cars, and the Camaro will be no exception. Every product has its own individual life cycle and GM is going to try to keep their money pit alive for years to come.

Here is my mental breakdown....

Initial demand = 300,000 cars. So Gm will build and sell 100,000 cars. As people learn more about the car and become more comfortable with it the demand will increase.

Year 2 Demand now = 350,000 cars. So GM will build and sell 150,000 cars.

Year 3 Demand = 300,000 So GM will build and sell 200,000 cars.

Year 4 Demand = 250,000 so GM will build 250,000 cars to capitalize on what is left of the market.

Year 5+ will follow in the same fashion until the market is saturated with cars or the demand for them drastically decreases in years 5-7. I anticipate that the Camaro will run for about 5-7 years before it needs to be revamped and restyled in 2013-14. At that time, GM will consider whether A. It is feasible, and B. If it is worth it to continue building Camaros as they are now. I foresee GM working very hard to enter the small car market while still holding on to some Truck / SUV production. The market for these cars will not last for long with the 35MPG federal standards coming down the pipe in 2020. It is at that point that the Camaro will either die forever, become a hybrid or alt. fuel car, or become a berlinetta of sorts only offering the look of the Camaro but powered by a 4 cylinder. It makes me sad to think this, but fossil fuels were outdated decades ago and with all the crap going on in the world politicians are going to be pressuring and rewarding companies to make econoboxes.


I may be wrong, but looking at it from a business standpoint with production break even points and the laws of diminishing demands I think I am close. But then again, this is dependant upon the idea that the world as well as GM will exist in 2014.

 

good logic bro!