to a degree it is the muffler, but not entirely. throw on a new hi flow muffler on a stock car with stock pipes, and throw a Magnaflow (ex.) catback on another, and the Magnaflow car will yield better results. mandrel bending, larger radius, the whole shebang. they really choke these cars up stock.
Brad
EDIT: And assuming youre talking about headaers also, since you said exhaust, not just catback, there's really no comparison from modded to stock. A car with a decent catback and LongTube headers will average probably 40-55 rwhp over a stock car.