4th Gen Firebirds as Future Colletables
09-14-2016, 09:54 PM
#41
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Firehawk market is all over the board depending mostly on mileage and what someone thinks their car is worth. From $10k all the way up to $40k for the same year make and model and somewhat close mileage. I've seen not as rare black 2002 ta hawks with $40k reserves and more rare 10th anniversary Hawks go for mid to high teens.
09-21-2016, 02:59 AM
#42
Give the LS1 Trans Am another 5-10 years, I think prices will go up for clean, original, low mileage cars. They might not appreciate at the level that the NSX and Supra are going through now, but I think they are already holding their value and will go up as time passes on and there are fewer on the market.
09-22-2016, 07:24 AM
#43
A lot of good thoughts in this thread. A couple more:
1) The basic laws of finances, interest rates and inflation dictate that ALL cars will begin to appreciate in "today's dollar" values. ALL cars, depreciate in "when new dollar" values as they age, and the RATE of depreciation slows as it gets older and the "when new dollar" value of the car gets very low. However, when the rate of depreciation falls below the rate of inflation, the car's "today's dollar" value will begin to increase. PROOF? Find a mint '74 Pinto and you'll find that the selling price at auction is quite likely higher than the cost of the car new. Keep in mind though, that when you adjust for inflation, that '74 Pinto has continued to depreciate in "1974 dollar" values (with exception to the handful of Pinto collectors that exist somewhere in this world).
2) WHEN those two rates mentioned above cross over depends a lot on the car, its condition, its rarity and its desirability. For MOST cars, this doesn't occur until it is about 20-25 years old.
3) I contend that if it were not for the "dark days" of automotive performance between the mid '70s and the early '90s, the "Muscle Cars" of the '60s would never have appreciated to the extent they have. Unfortunately for us LS1 f-body owners, the "horsepower wars" have continued unabated since our cars were new, making them generally less desirable than new cars. How many meticulously maintained fox-body 5.0 Mustangs are showing signs of significant appreciation? Few, if any.
4) The fact that Pontiac no longer exists, I think tilts the scales in favor of the Firebird having a "desirability" advantage over the same-year Camaros.
1) The basic laws of finances, interest rates and inflation dictate that ALL cars will begin to appreciate in "today's dollar" values. ALL cars, depreciate in "when new dollar" values as they age, and the RATE of depreciation slows as it gets older and the "when new dollar" value of the car gets very low. However, when the rate of depreciation falls below the rate of inflation, the car's "today's dollar" value will begin to increase. PROOF? Find a mint '74 Pinto and you'll find that the selling price at auction is quite likely higher than the cost of the car new. Keep in mind though, that when you adjust for inflation, that '74 Pinto has continued to depreciate in "1974 dollar" values (with exception to the handful of Pinto collectors that exist somewhere in this world).
2) WHEN those two rates mentioned above cross over depends a lot on the car, its condition, its rarity and its desirability. For MOST cars, this doesn't occur until it is about 20-25 years old.
3) I contend that if it were not for the "dark days" of automotive performance between the mid '70s and the early '90s, the "Muscle Cars" of the '60s would never have appreciated to the extent they have. Unfortunately for us LS1 f-body owners, the "horsepower wars" have continued unabated since our cars were new, making them generally less desirable than new cars. How many meticulously maintained fox-body 5.0 Mustangs are showing signs of significant appreciation? Few, if any.
4) The fact that Pontiac no longer exists, I think tilts the scales in favor of the Firebird having a "desirability" advantage over the same-year Camaros.
09-22-2016, 02:12 PM
#44
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A lot of good thoughts in this thread. A couple more:
1) The basic laws of finances, interest rates and inflation dictate that ALL cars will begin to appreciate in "today's dollar" values. ALL cars, depreciate in "when new dollar" values as they age, and the RATE of depreciation slows as it gets older and the "when new dollar" value of the car gets very low. However, when the rate of depreciation falls below the rate of inflation, the car's "today's dollar" value will begin to increase. PROOF? Find a mint '74 Pinto and you'll find that the selling price at auction is quite likely higher than the cost of the car new. Keep in mind though, that when you adjust for inflation, that '74 Pinto has continued to depreciate in "1974 dollar" values (with exception to the handful of Pinto collectors that exist somewhere in this world).
2) WHEN those two rates mentioned above cross over depends a lot on the car, its condition, its rarity and its desirability. For MOST cars, this doesn't occur until it is about 20-25 years old.
3) I contend that if it were not for the "dark days" of automotive performance between the mid '70s and the early '90s, the "Muscle Cars" of the '60s would never have appreciated to the extent they have. Unfortunately for us LS1 f-body owners, the "horsepower wars" have continued unabated since our cars were new, making them generally less desirable than new cars. How many meticulously maintained fox-body 5.0 Mustangs are showing signs of significant appreciation? Few, if any.
1) The basic laws of finances, interest rates and inflation dictate that ALL cars will begin to appreciate in "today's dollar" values. ALL cars, depreciate in "when new dollar" values as they age, and the RATE of depreciation slows as it gets older and the "when new dollar" value of the car gets very low. However, when the rate of depreciation falls below the rate of inflation, the car's "today's dollar" value will begin to increase. PROOF? Find a mint '74 Pinto and you'll find that the selling price at auction is quite likely higher than the cost of the car new. Keep in mind though, that when you adjust for inflation, that '74 Pinto has continued to depreciate in "1974 dollar" values (with exception to the handful of Pinto collectors that exist somewhere in this world).
2) WHEN those two rates mentioned above cross over depends a lot on the car, its condition, its rarity and its desirability. For MOST cars, this doesn't occur until it is about 20-25 years old.
3) I contend that if it were not for the "dark days" of automotive performance between the mid '70s and the early '90s, the "Muscle Cars" of the '60s would never have appreciated to the extent they have. Unfortunately for us LS1 f-body owners, the "horsepower wars" have continued unabated since our cars were new, making them generally less desirable than new cars. How many meticulously maintained fox-body 5.0 Mustangs are showing signs of significant appreciation? Few, if any.
Your #3 above is one of two reasons why I don't feel that these cars will ever reach comparably extreme values of some original-era muscle cars. The other is due to lack of special/rare factory engine offerings.
I think this has much less to do with Pontiac being discontinued, and more to do with greater demand for Firebird/TA's more dramatic styling. Many Pontiac collectors don't think much of the 4th gens (or 3rd gens) to begin with as they lack a Pontiac specific drivetrain. However, the Pontiac 4th gens will continue to be more desirable for as long as their styling is preferred among the average 4th gen shopper.
09-26-2016, 05:14 PM
#45
IMO the prices on the 4th gens have fallen below true value. Some are going for sub 5K. Even a mint 02 Firehawk sold at Mecum this year for $16K, that's less than half of the new price. I had my 2000 WS6 appraised at $15K 6 years ago, I think $8k- $10k would be a fair price based on current market conditions. At this point, I think we need another 10 years before prices start to move back up and even at that point, I think the value will be in the 15-25K range. I just don't see these becoming 50K cars anytime soon.
I get a kick out of people trying to sell CETA's for $30K. Only an uninformed sucker would buy one at that price.
I just checked Craigslist and found 4th gens ranging from $2500 LT1 to $15,000 for supercharged LS1 TA. Non supercharged for listed for between 8k-12k.
I get a kick out of people trying to sell CETA's for $30K. Only an uninformed sucker would buy one at that price.
I just checked Craigslist and found 4th gens ranging from $2500 LT1 to $15,000 for supercharged LS1 TA. Non supercharged for listed for between 8k-12k.
Last edited by wannafbody; 09-26-2016 at 06:44 PM.
10-22-2016, 07:16 AM
#46
I think the 4th gens will slowly appreciate over time for the next ten or so years. However when the self driving car technology becomes accepted and main stream there will eventually be a political movement to out law or restrict cars that require an active human driver. This will be pushed as a way of reducing traffic deaths. As restrictions against human active drivers accumulate the interest in non self driving cars will decrease. This will reduce the value of many classic cars and especially classic musle cars.
In 50 years the value of a stock 4th Gen TA and a 1st Gen Camaro will be about the same. Basically, of little value other than as a historical footnote. There will probably be special tracks you can take your gasoline powered car to and drive if it's still legal to operate a gasoline engine in the United States.
Resto-Mod will be the action. Self driving, electric resto mod'd 1st Gen Camaro's will have a niche following and retain a fraction of their former value. The same sort of 4th Gen Fbody resto mod will also have a very small market and command a similar price and value.
Only the very affluent will be able to indulge in the car hobby in fifty years or so. Our cars today will be come like the horses of yester-year, a near forgotten luxury for the privileged among us.
In 50 years the value of a stock 4th Gen TA and a 1st Gen Camaro will be about the same. Basically, of little value other than as a historical footnote. There will probably be special tracks you can take your gasoline powered car to and drive if it's still legal to operate a gasoline engine in the United States.
Resto-Mod will be the action. Self driving, electric resto mod'd 1st Gen Camaro's will have a niche following and retain a fraction of their former value. The same sort of 4th Gen Fbody resto mod will also have a very small market and command a similar price and value.
Only the very affluent will be able to indulge in the car hobby in fifty years or so. Our cars today will be come like the horses of yester-year, a near forgotten luxury for the privileged among us.
10-22-2016, 08:23 AM
#47
I think the 4th gens will slowly appreciate over time for the next ten or so years. However when the self driving car technology becomes accepted and main stream there will eventually be a political movement to out law or restrict cars that require an active human driver. This will be pushed as a way of reducing traffic deaths. As restrictions against human active drivers accumulate the interest in non self driving cars will decrease. This will reduce the value of many classic cars and especially classic musle cars.
In 50 years the value of a stock 4th Gen TA and a 1st Gen Camaro will be about the same. Basically, of little value other than as a historical footnote. There will probably be special tracks you can take your gasoline powered car to and drive if it's still legal to operate a gasoline engine in the United States.
Resto-Mod will be the action. Self driving, electric resto mod'd 1st Gen Camaro's will have a niche following and retain a fraction of their former value. The same sort of 4th Gen Fbody resto mod will also have a very small market and command a similar price and value.
Only the very affluent will be able to indulge in the car hobby in fifty years or so. Our cars today will be come like the horses of yester-year, a near forgotten luxury for the privileged among us.
In 50 years the value of a stock 4th Gen TA and a 1st Gen Camaro will be about the same. Basically, of little value other than as a historical footnote. There will probably be special tracks you can take your gasoline powered car to and drive if it's still legal to operate a gasoline engine in the United States.
Resto-Mod will be the action. Self driving, electric resto mod'd 1st Gen Camaro's will have a niche following and retain a fraction of their former value. The same sort of 4th Gen Fbody resto mod will also have a very small market and command a similar price and value.
Only the very affluent will be able to indulge in the car hobby in fifty years or so. Our cars today will be come like the horses of yester-year, a near forgotten luxury for the privileged among us.
Seriously speaking I agree very much with you. I just hope this post apocalyptic event occurs right around the time that VR is perfected so I can plug into the matrix and at least drive my car around in my mind.
Honestly with the evolution of gasoline powered engines and the amount of power and performance available from your every day grocery getter nowadays isn't the appeal to have these cars from a performance point already waining?
http://www.motortrend.com/news/the-2...so-get-30-mpg/
10-22-2016, 12:52 PM
#48
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I think the 4th gens will slowly appreciate over time for the next ten or so years. However when the self driving car technology becomes accepted and main stream there will eventually be a political movement to out law or restrict cars that require an active human driver. This will be pushed as a way of reducing traffic deaths. As restrictions against human active drivers accumulate the interest in non self driving cars will decrease. This will reduce the value of many classic cars and especially classic musle cars.
In 50 years the value of a stock 4th Gen TA and a 1st Gen Camaro will be about the same. Basically, of little value other than as a historical footnote. There will probably be special tracks you can take your gasoline powered car to and drive if it's still legal to operate a gasoline engine in the United States.
Resto-Mod will be the action. Self driving, electric resto mod'd 1st Gen Camaro's will have a niche following and retain a fraction of their former value. The same sort of 4th Gen Fbody resto mod will also have a very small market and command a similar price and value.
Only the very affluent will be able to indulge in the car hobby in fifty years or so. Our cars today will be come like the horses of yester-year, a near forgotten luxury for the privileged among us.
In 50 years the value of a stock 4th Gen TA and a 1st Gen Camaro will be about the same. Basically, of little value other than as a historical footnote. There will probably be special tracks you can take your gasoline powered car to and drive if it's still legal to operate a gasoline engine in the United States.
Resto-Mod will be the action. Self driving, electric resto mod'd 1st Gen Camaro's will have a niche following and retain a fraction of their former value. The same sort of 4th Gen Fbody resto mod will also have a very small market and command a similar price and value.
Only the very affluent will be able to indulge in the car hobby in fifty years or so. Our cars today will be come like the horses of yester-year, a near forgotten luxury for the privileged among us.
Now in middle age, I don't expect to have 50 driving years left in me. But more importantly, I don't see any of this happening in the next several decades.
Keep in mind that as safety regulations and technology have improved in the past, there has never been a mandate to retrofit or outlaw cars built prior to such improvements. My '71 is still perfectly legal to operate on public roadways without shoulder belts, or air bags, or 5mph bumpers, or a rear-view camera, or anything else modern. Even the EPA can't touch it. It's a big leap to expect that this trend will suddenly change and that older, non-self driving cars will become illegal in just a few decades. Now, I could see a time where the feds will force OEMs to equip every new car with some version of this technology, but that won't translate into an automatic mandate to outlaw older tech on pre-existing cars. You can look at emissions and MPG requirements as an excellent example of how these things progress; there are federal regulations for this, and OEMs must meet them to offer a passenger vehicle to the public. But once in the hands of a private owner, the only entity that stands in the way of making that vehicle completely devoid of emissions equipment are state agencies and any applicable local testing. Vehicle registration is a matter of state government, so the feds won't be getting involved in what is or is not legal to register in a given state. Therefore, you might see a more liberal and crowded state push for something like a banning of human controlled cars, but you likely won't see this in all areas anytime in the foreseeable future.
Additionally, as the average car on US roads is 11-12 years old today, and that average is trending longer, it would be well over a decade before the majority of new cars were self-driving - even if everything on the new car lots today was equipped with totally automated driving. And we're nowhere near that point as of the 2017 model year. Maybe in another decade we might be near such a point, but then the average car on US roadways might be as old as 13-14 years. So then you're looking at ~25 years from today before fully automated vehicles are in the majority. And that's still not likely to cause a total ban on pre-existing non-automated cars as any such thing would be a matter of local/state laws and enforcement, therefore vary from region to region.
Now if we're talking ~100 years from now, well I won't speculate that far out, nor will I be here to see it.
10-22-2016, 01:45 PM
#49
Something like this was touched on earlier in the thread.
Now in middle age, I don't expect to have 50 driving years left in me. But more importantly, I don't see any of this happening in the next several decades.
Keep in mind that as safety regulations and technology have improved in the past, there has never been a mandate to retrofit or outlaw cars built prior to such improvements. My '71 is still perfectly legal to operate on public roadways without shoulder belts, or air bags, or 5mph bumpers, or a rear-view camera, or anything else modern. Even the EPA can't touch it. It's a big leap to expect that this trend will suddenly change and that older, non-self driving cars will become illegal in just a few decades. Now, I could see a time where the feds will force OEMs to equip every new car with some version of this technology, but that won't translate into an automatic mandate to outlaw older tech on pre-existing cars. You can look at emissions and MPG requirements as an excellent example of how these things progress; there are federal regulations for this, and OEMs must meet them to offer a passenger vehicle to the public. But once in the hands of a private owner, the only entity that stands in the way of making that vehicle completely devoid of emissions equipment are state agencies and any applicable local testing. Vehicle registration is a matter of state government, so the feds won't be getting involved in what is or is not legal to register in a given state. Therefore, you might see a more liberal and crowded state push for something like a banning of human controlled cars, but you likely won't see this in all areas anytime in the foreseeable future.
Additionally, as the average car on US roads is 11-12 years old today, and that average is trending longer, it would be well over a decade before the majority of new cars were self-driving - even if everything on the new car lots today was equipped with totally automated driving. And we're nowhere near that point as of the 2017 model year. Maybe in another decade we might be near such a point, but then the average car on US roadways might be as old as 13-14 years. So then you're looking at ~25 years from today before fully automated vehicles are in the majority. And that's still not likely to cause a total ban on pre-existing non-automated cars as any such thing would be a matter of local/state laws and enforcement, therefore vary from region to region.
Now if we're talking ~100 years from now, well I won't speculate that far out, nor will I be here to see it.
Now in middle age, I don't expect to have 50 driving years left in me. But more importantly, I don't see any of this happening in the next several decades.
Keep in mind that as safety regulations and technology have improved in the past, there has never been a mandate to retrofit or outlaw cars built prior to such improvements. My '71 is still perfectly legal to operate on public roadways without shoulder belts, or air bags, or 5mph bumpers, or a rear-view camera, or anything else modern. Even the EPA can't touch it. It's a big leap to expect that this trend will suddenly change and that older, non-self driving cars will become illegal in just a few decades. Now, I could see a time where the feds will force OEMs to equip every new car with some version of this technology, but that won't translate into an automatic mandate to outlaw older tech on pre-existing cars. You can look at emissions and MPG requirements as an excellent example of how these things progress; there are federal regulations for this, and OEMs must meet them to offer a passenger vehicle to the public. But once in the hands of a private owner, the only entity that stands in the way of making that vehicle completely devoid of emissions equipment are state agencies and any applicable local testing. Vehicle registration is a matter of state government, so the feds won't be getting involved in what is or is not legal to register in a given state. Therefore, you might see a more liberal and crowded state push for something like a banning of human controlled cars, but you likely won't see this in all areas anytime in the foreseeable future.
Additionally, as the average car on US roads is 11-12 years old today, and that average is trending longer, it would be well over a decade before the majority of new cars were self-driving - even if everything on the new car lots today was equipped with totally automated driving. And we're nowhere near that point as of the 2017 model year. Maybe in another decade we might be near such a point, but then the average car on US roadways might be as old as 13-14 years. So then you're looking at ~25 years from today before fully automated vehicles are in the majority. And that's still not likely to cause a total ban on pre-existing non-automated cars as any such thing would be a matter of local/state laws and enforcement, therefore vary from region to region.
Now if we're talking ~100 years from now, well I won't speculate that far out, nor will I be here to see it.
I think there is an easier way to get rid of these evil meat eating gas guzzling muscle cars. Just stop making replacement parts for them. Eventually OEM stuff runs out and the car becomes a relic like a Zune mp3 player. Or perhaps we become ingenious at keeping them running like the Cubans do in their country with limited parts and supplies.
10-26-2016, 01:26 PM
#51
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I hope these things don't become collectibles, because then we'll be paying out the *** for good clean examples and I sure as **** don't want that. Keep the values nice and low and keep them our little high performance secret.
10-26-2016, 03:01 PM
#52
Have you tried pitching this movie idea to Stephen King. It's definitely in his genre.
Seriously speaking I agree very much with you. I just hope this post apocalyptic event occurs right around the time that VR is perfected so I can plug into the matrix and at least drive my car around in my mind.
Honestly with the evolution of gasoline powered engines and the amount of power and performance available from your every day grocery getter nowadays isn't the appeal to have these cars from a performance point already waining?
http://www.motortrend.com/news/the-2...so-get-30-mpg/
Seriously speaking I agree very much with you. I just hope this post apocalyptic event occurs right around the time that VR is perfected so I can plug into the matrix and at least drive my car around in my mind.
Honestly with the evolution of gasoline powered engines and the amount of power and performance available from your every day grocery getter nowadays isn't the appeal to have these cars from a performance point already waining?
http://www.motortrend.com/news/the-2...so-get-30-mpg/
10-26-2016, 03:49 PM
#53
Originally Posted by Eric Trujillo
I hope these things don't become collectibles, because then we'll be paying out the *** for good clean examples and I sure as **** don't want that. Keep the values nice and low and keep them our little high performance secret.
10-27-2016, 12:04 PM
#54
just jumping in, seems like the conversation is still on track with the title.
Theres no way these cars will become collectibles, there were just far too many mass produced and production ran for many years. Now with the 60's Camaros/vettes and mustangs though in their time were mass produced they also stood for something and were a symbol of the muscle cars rise to the scene in America, and IMO really kick started the movement. The cars were in classic movies and were a symbol of their time. Now fast forward to the digital age of technology and cell phones and the entire culture of the country has changed. The f body was never a national symbol of anything and didn't kick start or become notable for anything like the iconic classics did. The same can be said of the modern muscle on the street nowadays, with mass production on even the "limited run" tiers like gt500 and zl1/zo6 theres still far too many produced and far less symbolism behind them to make them stand out in the history of the future. The classics are in our minds, the classics because our fathers taught us that when we were growing up, and we will carry this mindset to our children. Theres just too much going against the grain for f body to become a classic.
Theres no way these cars will become collectibles, there were just far too many mass produced and production ran for many years. Now with the 60's Camaros/vettes and mustangs though in their time were mass produced they also stood for something and were a symbol of the muscle cars rise to the scene in America, and IMO really kick started the movement. The cars were in classic movies and were a symbol of their time. Now fast forward to the digital age of technology and cell phones and the entire culture of the country has changed. The f body was never a national symbol of anything and didn't kick start or become notable for anything like the iconic classics did. The same can be said of the modern muscle on the street nowadays, with mass production on even the "limited run" tiers like gt500 and zl1/zo6 theres still far too many produced and far less symbolism behind them to make them stand out in the history of the future. The classics are in our minds, the classics because our fathers taught us that when we were growing up, and we will carry this mindset to our children. Theres just too much going against the grain for f body to become a classic.
10-27-2016, 01:08 PM
#55
just jumping in, seems like the conversation is still on track with the title.
Theres no way these cars will become collectibles, there were just far too many mass produced and production ran for many years. Now with the 60's Camaros/vettes and mustangs though in their time were mass produced they also stood for something and were a symbol of the muscle cars rise to the scene in America, and IMO really kick started the movement. The cars were in classic movies and were a symbol of their time. Now fast forward to the digital age of technology and cell phones and the entire culture of the country has changed. The f body was never a national symbol of anything and didn't kick start or become notable for anything like the iconic classics did. The same can be said of the modern muscle on the street nowadays, with mass production on even the "limited run" tiers like gt500 and zl1/zo6 theres still far too many produced and far less symbolism behind them to make them stand out in the history of the future. The classics are in our minds, the classics because our fathers taught us that when we were growing up, and we will carry this mindset to our children. Theres just too much going against the grain for f body to become a classic.
Theres no way these cars will become collectibles, there were just far too many mass produced and production ran for many years. Now with the 60's Camaros/vettes and mustangs though in their time were mass produced they also stood for something and were a symbol of the muscle cars rise to the scene in America, and IMO really kick started the movement. The cars were in classic movies and were a symbol of their time. Now fast forward to the digital age of technology and cell phones and the entire culture of the country has changed. The f body was never a national symbol of anything and didn't kick start or become notable for anything like the iconic classics did. The same can be said of the modern muscle on the street nowadays, with mass production on even the "limited run" tiers like gt500 and zl1/zo6 theres still far too many produced and far less symbolism behind them to make them stand out in the history of the future. The classics are in our minds, the classics because our fathers taught us that when we were growing up, and we will carry this mindset to our children. Theres just too much going against the grain for f body to become a classic.
10-27-2016, 04:16 PM
#56
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