ChocoTaco369

they discovered we'd pay it. gas consumption is up 2.9% from last year. that means high prices aren't deterring people. it will remain high since they discovered we'd pay it.

however, the rest of the market is suffering. in the long run, i believe gas prices will crash hard. the high gas prices will eventually kill the market because no one is spending money elsewhere since their gas money has doubled or tripled. the dying market will crash commodities, thereby crashing gas. it'll be cyclic.

like it was already said, inflation adjusted, oil will have to hit $90/barrel to pass the 1980's. oil has only hit ~$78.50/barrel. gas prices went down after the 80's. it will eventually stabilize back to the ~$1.50/gal level. it always has. it'll just take 5-10 years.

lo_jack

iTrader: (27)

That is exactly what is supposed to happen. That means the price is not high enough, and we are actually getting cheap gas. You are precisely right, but you do not realize that what you found is what should be occuring in the market.

The days of gasoline under $2 are over, until such a time as something else comes to take up a big enough market share to displace a ton of demand.

There is speculation. There is capitalization on fear. That happens in the commodity markets. But it is not a huge component of pump price. Even at $10 worth per barrel of oil at 70, that only takes you to 60, and that could still run an equivalent price at the pump, provided the supply chain is still lousy as it is today: choked by refining capacity, the use of ethanol, and various other things.

Demand is slightly down domestically and we are importing a lot of refined product currently. But overall demand is up from a year ago, just as you pointed out, and it will not deminish domestically or globally, which is something few people are taking into account.

Chaco your 5-10 year prediction actually has potential, but it is not for the reasons you suspect. I would say a replacement prodcut or technology could take a lot of burden of gasoline prices that soon, like diesel or god help us, ethanol. But your conspiracy theories are ill founded and this is why:

The bottom line is that hydrocarbon is not a commodity, it is a scarce natural resource, and the easiest of it to produce already has been. You say there is plenty of oil but show me where it is, who has it and how much it will cost to produce and get to market. Across the entire supply/value chains. If you want to be honest, you would actually say that the global oil price is pretty much held up by Saudi, who claim to have enourmous reserves, but have never shown anyone any hard data to support their claims. We just trust them, and the price is what it is, by and large. The entire world just goes along hoping they have it, and that is what the price is more or less based on, far term, and near term, it is based on what they produce or produced historically short term.

Black Knight has a good point. Exxon is more efficient. Walmart is efficient too, and no one complains about how much they charge for anything, or how much they make in profit. The only difference is ExxonMobil doesn't have a cute little sign that shows what you could be paying if they weren't as efficient as they are now.

I will say it again: gasoline retailers make more profit on a cup of coffee than a pump transaction, and the government makes more on gasoline sales than gasoline retailers.

ChocoTaco369

i'm saying my prediction has potential because the market is cyclic. in the '80's, prices were technically higher, yet they stabilized. now is no exception.

what you have to realize is gasoline is different than most commodities. gold, for instance, can climb and climb. if it goes too high, people won't buy it, so the price stabilizes. this is not an option for gasoline. the whole world runs on it. that means no matter what the price is, people will have to buy it. they will just cut back on everything else. this is why gas prices can single-handedly ruin the economy. corn, gold, silver - they can't do this. they aren't the lifeblood of society.

gasoline will crash because companies will lose too much money being forced to buy high gasoline, prices will rise too high to compensate, inflation will skyrocket and the poor won't buy anything at all. this is what is happening now - and that's why i predict in 5-10 years, gas will completely bottom out. then, it'll slowly creep back up to ~$1.50/gal and hang there for years before doing this crap all over again.

lo_jack

iTrader: (27)

That is true, but if you talk to any resevoir engineers, geologists or geophysicists, most of them will tell you that the easy plays are pretty much done. This isn't 1985. The world has produced a lot of oil since then, and it was the stuff we could get at easily. The nature of the resource has fundamentally changed, and the market is signalling that. We have to drill deeper, higher temp higher pressure wells to get the same volume of oil, and we are not replacing reserves fast enough. This is a different world.

I also disagree with you on this. Gasoline is an intergal part of cheap transportation to this country, but we put it on the pedestal it is now on, and did not consider the ramifications of what would happen if it were not always inexpensive. No one is forcing us to buy cars and trucks that get 13 mpg. No one is forcing you to buy a big place in the burbs and drive into work 30+ miles there and back. Those are choices we made. We did this ourselves, there is no blame to be laid on "oil companies" or "them." That totally lacks any personal responsiblilty we as consumers of an important asset have.

I agree that this has been the system before, but it was based on the assumption that the resource was cheaply and widely available. All I am saying is consider that is not the case, and see if all the economic input that you are finding yourself is not indicative of a fundamental change in the availability of the resource. Just because this has happened before, and it has gone back down does not mean it will again, because of the nature of the product itself.

We do not know how much oil there is, but we do know it is costly to produce presently. With the indicators and info available, i.e. no reserves reports or 3rd party audits of Saudi Arabian reserves base (which consitutes the bulk of the worlds "known" supply), you cannot say for certain it will go back down, that it should go back down, or that these prices are not market driven.

black_knight

iTrader: (1)

Actually, it was government meddling with the money supply. Which is the same point I've been making here: if you adjust for how much the government has inflated our money, gas hasn't really gone up all that much. Remember: $/gal has two components: the gallons, and the dollars.

As to whether gas will get cheaper or not... that's really hard to say. Most of the price of gas is taxes, environmental regulations, inflation, and other government meddling. Predicting the market is easy compared to predicting what meddling the government will do.

Absent meddling, gas would just get cheaper and cheaper. The power of innovation and technology is very much winning out over the scarcity of oil. Subtract out all the government BS from gas prices and you will see that it has been getting cheaper and cheaper as the years pass and will continue to do so.

To give an idea of just how much environmental regulations are costing us, consider the fact that it is becoming profitable to refine it in India and ship it 9000 miles to America! That's how hostile our government regulations are to gas refining.

CockerKid009

gas has came down here from 3.11 to 2.73 in like the past 3 weeks

fastcameross

iTrader: (2)

right now im paying about 2.75 for premium..not sure how good the quality is tho

BAD FNZ

3.20 here in Denver for 91... just filled up =(

lxcoupe

iTrader: (8)

Ask yourself what the purpose of a corporation is ... to make its shareholders wealthy. That's it! Granted the face-value logic of a corporation that pays its CEO $400 million per year appears flawed. Free markets work, we've proven that, and Exxon- Mobil is a great example of that ...

Splitz

iTrader: (1)

I beg to differ on this one. There is enough oil in Alaska/Colorao/Wyoming/Idaho to sustain US only oil needs for the next 250 years. We do NOT need to depend on foreign oil. The problem is the damn democrats and "tree huggers" refuse to open up Alaska and other "wildlife" reserves to help out. They woul rather buy foreign oil.....never made any sense to me.

What everbody does not seem to understand is the economic growth of both India AND China which is putting a strain on the oil markets. If we only produce what we did in say....1985 and do not increase it to match the increase in demand, we wouldn't be in the boat that we are in.

Laws of Supply and Demand, however, there really isn't a shortage of oil, it's a lack of refining power to turn it into gasoline which is the current problem. The EPA hasn't approved an oil refinery to gasoline plant since 1972.

BlackTransAm_94

Paid to 2.63 for regular unleaded today

sdbrown84

iTrader: (22)

Pay usually 2.9X. It is dropping for now...

But you better watch the thread title. It only lists the first five words on the LS1 homepage when it is the most recently updated "How Hard Are You Getting"

02 Camaro SS

iTrader: (4)

Around $3.50 for 93 in NY but I almost always fill up in NJ for ~$3.10

black_knight

iTrader: (1)

Splitz,

Right you are on all points.

Running out of oil?

High Gas Prices Courtesy of Environmental Rhetoric

Note especially the irony of Nancy Pelosi, who has her boogeyman of "we don't want to subsidize the oil companies!" where there are in fact no subsidies. Meanwhile, she pushes for ethanol, which has MASSIVE subsidies and still isn't profitable.

Roarin_8

iTrader: (5)

It's less than that now, went to 3.29 last time I checked.

davidadavila

310 for 91 in southern Cali But we sure wish we had some 93 around here

00T\A

2.69 for 93 in Houston Texas today.

NxLS1496

iTrader: (1)

its gotten better down here in fl, i was paying around 3.20 for 93, now its about 2.95.

The PAT WS6

iTrader: (14)

**** gas is goiin down in my area and it dont even cost me 40 bucks to fill up the tanbk

purdueranger

iTrader: (11)

2.49 a gallon for 87 octane in Indianapolis. I like having a 10% rebate on my BP gas. so 2.71 for premium is really 2.44 a gallon.