You cannot accurately diagnose a smog failure without taking the other numbers into account, did the HC's drop below Average or are they higher than average, are the CO's low or high? It seems like you are running in circles because you are listening to backyard mechanics. I have smogged many cars, some that have sat and cooled off before a test, even OVERNIGHT and I have came in at 8:00 and they passed, it's not because the car isn't hot enough. High NOx is caused by anything from high combustion temps, EGR failure, CAT failure, a lean condition, etc. An EGR solenoid can be mechanically functional but electrically bad. It needs to be commanded open with a Scan tool before you can determine that it is bad, or good. My GUESS is a bad EGR, but it could be a bad cat. It cannot be determined without the proper tests and without seeing the ACTUAL VIR (Vehicle Inspection Report).
Matthew
CA Licensed Smog Technician