The 4th gen birds decreasing value.. will it ever stop?
#1
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The 4th gen birds decreasing value.. will it ever stop?
Just as the title says, and when do you guys think their value will increase if at all?
Last edited by emj2006; 12-03-2006 at 11:50 PM.
#3
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Not really they are a car just like any other, they depreciate like crazy. After about 10 yeards old, they are old and no one wants them any more and the prices kinda level out for clean ones if some one wnats to pay that much. A very select few, 1LEs for sure, WS6 Formulas due to the limited numbers may hold value a tad better than say a regular Formula. But cars like the 30th Anniv cars, rare color combo Firehawks and maybe the CETA cars will loose value but still be worth more. I remember when a good deal on a used 97 TA was about $17K, to pick up a good clean 91-92 GTA, had to be looking to drop atleast $10K for one. Cars go down in value, some thing better always comes on down the line to out date them, dont look at a 4th gen as a investment for increase in value.
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It'll be a long time before they really start to go back up in value. Like 20yrs or so. People DO know what these cars are, and many haven't used/abused/daily driven theirs, so in 20yrs or so, a clean, unmolested 2002 WS6 TA could be back up to 20-25k or more. No one knows. I do know that my 78 TA, even in it's slightly modified condition, is worth more now then it was new in 1978. Stickered for I think 6500 or so....today I could probably get 8 or 9k, I'm guessing. That's 28 years. (damn that's old) I bought it in 1999 for $5750, needing body and interior work.
#7
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Learn from history
Hey naysayers out there, learn from history. Of course these are the 'down' times for our F-bodies as they still need to be weeded out (junkyard heaven) but in 10-15 years try to get a nice clean one without spending BIG bucks. These production numbers are ULTRA LOW. The nice T/A's from the late 80's are already selling for over their NEW CAR list price. That is less than 20 years time and I don't think they are as nice as what we drive today. We won't even talk about the original 60's and 70's cars that bring really nice premiums. Patience is the key to any investment. You can enjoy the car now and if you are able to keep it nice when you get tired of it, try to 'store it away' somewhere instead of getting chump change for it. If it is beaten, dump it. If you are a weekend warrior or are just good at keeping the cars real nice, hang on to them. That $10,000-$15,000 (minimum) you will get for nice 4th generation F-bodies is like money in the bank. I realize it is tough to make room for a car, but if you can, do it. You can still enjoy the car all those years as well. I'll tell you right now that these LS1 F-bodies with 50,000 miles or less will bring a minimum of $15,000 -$25,000 to any owner in 15 years. The really LOW miles cars will get much more. Those who need to use these as DD's or race don't need to fly off the handle. I know you can't do this but don't say these cars won't be worth anything. You would sound like people from the past that proved to be completely wrong and regretting it to this day. Enjoy your rides! You are driving future 'classics'.
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#8
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You guys are not considering inflation. The reason 2nd gen f-bodies are fetching over what they costed new is partially due to inflation. Yes they have appreciated some, but to put a "tag" on it you have to do some sort of analysis.
Anyway, cars make shitty investments. Forget about Barret-Jackson auctions. Chances us nobody here is gonna retire off the sale of their f-body 20 years from now. The cars that cost alot of money down the road are the ultra low production DESIREABLE cars. Ultra low is not what the 4th gen is. A car with say manual window or some other retarded option or lack of will not generally draw big bucks. BTW ws-6 option means **** in terms of collectability.
I think that you should be able to get at least what you paid for your car. But that dollar amount is not worth the same, as I alluded to before. I think the rule is that inflation doubles every 10 years. So 20K in 20 years from now is really 5k respectively.
I am sort of a novice when it comes to 4th gen. I am more of a 2nd gen guy.
The 4th gens that will be worth some money are the CE's, anniversary edtion, certain year formulas and low mileage. But short of the actual 99 anniversary pace cars 4th gen will not be 100K cars.
Now that I got everyone confused. If you want to make money on cars, buy a used car lot and sell used cars.
Anyway, cars make shitty investments. Forget about Barret-Jackson auctions. Chances us nobody here is gonna retire off the sale of their f-body 20 years from now. The cars that cost alot of money down the road are the ultra low production DESIREABLE cars. Ultra low is not what the 4th gen is. A car with say manual window or some other retarded option or lack of will not generally draw big bucks. BTW ws-6 option means **** in terms of collectability.
I think that you should be able to get at least what you paid for your car. But that dollar amount is not worth the same, as I alluded to before. I think the rule is that inflation doubles every 10 years. So 20K in 20 years from now is really 5k respectively.
I am sort of a novice when it comes to 4th gen. I am more of a 2nd gen guy.
The 4th gens that will be worth some money are the CE's, anniversary edtion, certain year formulas and low mileage. But short of the actual 99 anniversary pace cars 4th gen will not be 100K cars.
Now that I got everyone confused. If you want to make money on cars, buy a used car lot and sell used cars.
Last edited by 30thanniv; 12-04-2006 at 04:28 PM.
#9
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I haven't lost a dime on any LS1 f-bodies I've owned. I'm good at picking desirable/rare vehicles up at fair pricing, and turning them around in a year or two for a slight profit. Buy a car that people want, get a good price on it, and no worries unless you rag on it and it looks like crap when it comes time to sell it.
#10
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Inflation not quite that bad
Good point about inflation but it isn't quite that bad or high. I'll go back 30 years as an example. If someone gave me $20,000 back in 1976 (a lot of money) and said I couldn't touch it for 30 years with NO interest I would say GREAT! I'm sure it will buy me lots of stuff when the time in 2006 comes. Well here in 2006 that $20,000 is still a LOT of money and it will buy me lots of things. Inflation even rose 'double digits' in the early 80's and still did not affect that money that much. Since the early 80's it is rising about 3% a year on average with some 1% and 2% years thrown in. No one can predict the future but the example given that $20,000 will be worth $5,000 is way off, not even close. I'm not that smart with math but I think you are talking around 200% inflation which would be 10% inflation every year for 20 years (or something like that). That would be some really rough times for all of us. Let's hope not. Owners of these 4th generation F-bodies will be happy to have them when the time comes. Also how can anyone predict what these cars will bring at a major auction? Just don't say 'NO WAY'. Do you think back in the early 70's that anyone predicted 'CLONE' cars would bring 6 figures? I doubt it. People would have been laughing their asses off. A clone? Not even an original? As I said in my previous post, don't let history repeat itself or you might find yourself kicking yourself in the butt. Simple V8's could be HIGHLY desirable once the 'greenies' come to power and take all the muscle cars off the market. It happened in the late 70's and it could happen again. If I'm completely wrong, guess what, you have had a fun car to own all these years. What harm is there in that?
#13
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I think it's going by generations..1st gen prices are crazy..2nd gens are going way up, 3rd gens, We might skip them altogether..LOL..Then come the 4th gens. I don't think we will be able to get what we paid for these cars 20 yrs from now, But I think the price will hold steady or go up a little bit..I bought my 81 T/A in June & paid $14,500 with 86,000 miles, Car cost $13,700 new, but I don't see 4th gens selling for $30,000 unless they have really, really low miles.
#14
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Todays cars can easily become worthless, partially due to the high numbers of production and due to the fact that more and more people think that a car is just a car and it is disposable. I love my TA and don't think that the $$ amount of the car matters, the most important thing is to have fun with it, enjoy it.
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If I remember correctly, last year on Barrett-Jackson there was a 1992 Camaro Z28 with the 1LE option and no heater or something like that go for about a little under 30. Car looked showroom and had less than like 500 miles.
Also there was a 1993 Mustang GT with low miles as well that went for 20K. I laughed my *** off for about 5 minutes. They were making comparisons about the two.
Also there was a 1993 Mustang GT with low miles as well that went for 20K. I laughed my *** off for about 5 minutes. They were making comparisons about the two.
#16
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I don't care about the decreasing value of my 'bird. No one would buy it anyway...despite being well-maintained, it's been extensively modded. To most people, is equal to being "thoroughly molested."
#18
Originally Posted by NC01TA
I'm not that smart with math but I think you are talking around 200% inflation which would be 10% inflation every year for 20 years (or something like that).
And working the other way, since inflation is actually about 4-5%. Assuming you buy the car for $15k, the cars equivalent value 20 years from now will be almost $40k. So when you sell it for $20k, you are actually LOSING $20k!
#19
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...and if you buy a tech NASDAQ stock like so many did in the earlier part of the decade you have ZIP!! Thanks for the correction on the inflation equation but I'll choose to have a little fun with my potential 'investment' while the rest of the naysayers can sell their cars and kick their butts in the future.
#20
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personally, i believe that the easiest way to determine "common" value is what your insurace agrees to pay if anything happens to your car. for ex: my insurance agreed that they believe my hawk is work 25k. if i total my hawk, or it gets stolen and i can prove it. boom, they pay me 25k. although, i would assume that having collectors insurance plays a roll in my price tag. but ya overall they are decreasing in value, but like stated above, the nice ones, in probally 20 years, depends on the market, will be worth quite a bit of money. but honestly, a car is only worth what someone will pay. a certain car to you may only be worth 50k but there is that rich guy that is willing to dish out more than you. to me, a car is only worth what someone will pay. to everyone, the cars worth is different