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10% Ethanol?

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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 09:23 AM
  #61  
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Originally Posted by ChocoTaco369
it eats rubber hoses and gaskets because our engines were not made to run ethanol
Where is all this damage occuring on cars using E10? I have 8-10 year old cars that have been fed E10 forever, and their stock fuel systems are fine.

E85 is another issue though as the ethanol content is obviously so much greater than E10, but the E10 fuels have been around for a long time now in the Midwest and I personally haven't seen any issues because of it.
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by RPM WS6
Where is all this damage occuring on cars using E10? I have 8-10 year old cars that have been fed E10 forever, and their stock fuel systems are fine.

E85 is another issue though as the ethanol content is obviously so much greater than E10, but the E10 fuels have been around for a long time now in the Midwest and I personally haven't seen any issues because of it.
no one should argue that fuel economy is worse on E10. no one should also argue that E10 poses more risk than regular gas to fuel systems. even if it's just 1% more, it's still more risk.

like i was saying, it won't stop at 10%. it'll only get higher. in a few years we may be running 20%. then 25%. then 40%. who knows? i think it's pretty safe to say there will be a raise in ethanol content in gas
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by ChocoTaco369
no one should argue that fuel economy is worse on E10. no one should also argue that E10 poses more risk than regular gas to fuel systems. even if it's just 1% more, it's still more risk.

like i was saying, it won't stop at 10%. it'll only get higher. in a few years we may be running 20%. then 25%. then 40%. who knows? i think it's pretty safe to say there will be a raise in ethanol content in gas
I think you are correct on this guess, but it will not be for "environmental reasons." More than likely, the cost of gas, vis a vis crude oil, will go up to a point where it makes much more economic sense to use more ethanol, even if you cannot transport it in pipes, it gets worse milage, and you have to waste a bunch of corn to do it.

On it's face, I think ethanol is actually great. It will take roughly 30 years to phase out the cars in our fleet with new models that accomodate more than 10% ethanol, but I think that will probably happen because it is the easiest thing to do, besides diesel.

If we made ethanol out of switchgrass and other cellulose sources, the fact that ethanol provides less milage could be made up because we could make so much more using the same inputs. That would be good for everyone. But as long as we stick with corn, we will basically be taking a good idea and doing it the worst way possible, with the least amount of return. And the percentage we are required to include in gasoline will always cost more than it would otherwise, indeed more than other countries make it for. Brazil uses sugar, and they can make the same amount of ethanol much cheaper. The only reason that isn't helping you right now is that there are massive tarriffs on Brazilian ethanol, to keep our producers insulated. So you pay more for less. Again.
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 10:38 AM
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if we're still USING gasoline in 30 years, i'm going to be HIGHLY upset.

i have read analysist's opinions and many say that in the mid-term, prices will remain high, but in the longer term (i.e. 5-10 years) we can expect oil back in the $20-$30 range. i'm serious. i read this. this equates to $1.35/gallon regular again. will this happen? only time will tell.

the only thing that will ever regulate gas prices is an alternative fuel. it'll be like cable tv vs. satellite or cable internet vs. dsl. it regulates prices when you have a different option to switch to. if gas prices are too high, you switch to the other option. the only way we'll ever see steady $1.25 gas again is if we come out with hydrogen powered cars or a different fuel. oil prices will have to stabilize and remain low if they are going to sell any gas at all. personally i'd like to get off oil all together just to stick it to the middle east. does anyone realize what will happen to the middle east if the world never buys another drop of oil? it's their only export. they'd be finished.
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by ChocoTaco369
if we're still USING gasoline in 30 years, i'm going to be HIGHLY upset.
Then expect to be upset.

It’s not at all uncommon to see cars that are 10-15 year old driving around in the Chicago area, and cars here are subject to foul weather that really beats them down over the years. Yet many people continue to drive their older cars (due to either financial limitations or because they become attached) even as their condition degrades. I take a walk through the parking lot at work and still see quite a few cars built between ’89 and ’95.

I imagine that seeing older cars on the road is even more common in parts of the country that aren’t subject to extreme seasonal climate change and more salt per square mile of road than snow, come winter (Thanks, IDOT )

So you have to expect that it’ll be a good 15 years or more after the last gas powered cars come off the assembly line before there is no longer a demand for gasoline. So long as there is demand, the product will continue to find a way to the market and people will continue to drive their older cars. This will be even more true should the price of gas actually drop in coming years, as you suggest. Those people buying cars fueled by "new gas" will allow others to enjoy lower gas prices on their aging gasoline cars, making it even more attractive not to buy a new car just to "switch over".
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 11:08 AM
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i just mean i hope in 30 years it's not our ONLY fuel. there NEEDS to be alternatives. they should make half gas cars or half hydrogen cars. that way there are 2 fuel markets. it'll regulate prices. i never meant that gas should be extinct.
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 12:13 PM
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Originally Posted by ChocoTaco369
if we're still USING gasoline in 30 years, i'm going to be HIGHLY upset.

i have read analysist's opinions and many say that in the mid-term, prices will remain high, but in the longer term (i.e. 5-10 years) we can expect oil back in the $20-$30 range. i'm serious. i read this. this equates to $1.35/gallon regular again. will this happen? only time will tell.
Simply not the case. You could argue economics (as price goes up substitutes are introduced) or geology (tar sands are mined for gas that is probably in the $5-8/gal range). At constant 2006 dollars, on a 20mpg, 20k mi/year car, fuel would go from 20-40% of annual costs to 60-80% as cost of ownership tripled? I don't think so.

There is no shortage of fuel. There is some shortage of mining, refining, and distribution capability.
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted by lo_jack
Good luck with that, but methinks you missed the point.

I suppose there are many points floating around.

My point is that raising fuel economy standards in the US (eliminating anything under 30mpg, except for a few sports cars, of course), coupled with switching to E85, E100, or some other variant of non-middle east fuel, will put this country in a much stronger position globally. As an unintended side effect, we might be taking better care of our ozone/air supply (not that I really care about that, but it makes this plan easier to sell to the public).
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 12:54 PM
  #69  
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Originally Posted by DavidNJ
Simply not the case. You could argue economics (as price goes up substitutes are introduced) or geology (tar sands are mined for gas that is probably in the $5-8/gal range). At constant 2006 dollars, on a 20mpg, 20k mi/year car, fuel would go from 20-40% of annual costs to 60-80% as cost of ownership tripled? I don't think so.

There is no shortage of fuel. There is some shortage of mining, refining, and distribution capability.
if there are alternative energy sources, it WILL regulate the cost of gasoline. they will be forced to build new refineries and manufacture it more cheaply. right now, there is no rush to dump money into refinery output or drilling output. they have zero competition. that is why prices won't drop. true, geopolitical tensions and seemingly every other excuse in the book are at work, but if people could go out and buy hydrogen cars and get off gas tomorrow, you better bet your *** gas prices will fall.

FWIW, exxon just announced today its second quarter profit is up 36% totaling in at $10.36 billion, the second highest ever in history. the oil market is playing "the game".
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Domestic Demon
In fact, you will lose some power as well as a couple MPG. Not benficial at all.
Thats not been the case in my experience at ALL. I have efilive and have ran scans on both types of fuel. I have not noticed a difference in mileage or power between the two. The 10% ethanol simply replaces the MTBE that was used before as an additive in gasoline. Again with no ill effects that I have noticed. A 10% ethanol mix is not going to harm your car.....

The primary ingredient in MTBE is methanol. Guess what, chemically thats very close to ethanol ....Hence the reason you are not going to see a much difference when running E10.

Last edited by cantdrv65; Jul 27, 2006 at 02:46 PM.
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by RPM WS6
Where is all this damage occuring on cars using E10? I have 8-10 year old cars that have been fed E10 forever, and their stock fuel systems are fine.

E85 is another issue though as the ethanol content is obviously so much greater than E10, but the E10 fuels have been around for a long time now in the Midwest and I personally haven't seen any issues because of it.
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 02:43 PM
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Originally Posted by ChocoTaco369
if there are alternative energy sources, it WILL regulate the cost of gasoline. they will be forced to build new refineries and manufacture it more cheaply. right now, there is no rush to dump money into refinery output or drilling output. they have zero competition. that is why prices won't drop. true, geopolitical tensions and seemingly every other excuse in the book are at work, but if people could go out and buy hydrogen cars and get off gas tomorrow, you better bet your *** gas prices will fall.

FWIW, exxon just announced today its second quarter profit is up 36% totaling in at $10.36 billion, the second highest ever in history. the oil market is playing "the game".
Actually, there is quite a big rush to build new capacity...worldwide. Gasoline, being the least expensive portable fuel, is the price regulating commodity. Those profits really aren't that large for the size of the company, they didn't exist forever in the past, and they won't exist forever in the future. However, it is those profits that drive new capacity.

And cantdrv65, on a different note, ethanol has less energy per unit volume or unit mass. You can tune to equivalent power, but mileage is a function of the energy stored. Compared to gas, it is a watered down drink.

I'm looking forward to ethanol causing an end to grain subsidies. Let Archer Daniels Midland fend for itself!
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by DavidNJ
And cantdrv65, on a different note, ethanol has less energy per unit volume or unit mass. You can tune to equivalent power, but mileage is a function of the energy stored. Compared to gas, it is a watered down drink.
But it isnt replacing gasoline...its replacing MTBE. Again MTBE is primarily methanol.... guess what the "ol" stands for yep you guessed it they are both alcohols.

Last edited by cantdrv65; Jul 27, 2006 at 03:02 PM.
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 02:54 PM
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Where Is MtBE Used?
MtBE increases the octane rating of gasoline and reduces air pollution by also increasing the gasoline’s oxygen content. It was first introduced into gasoline in the early 1980s as lead was removed. The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments required the reformulation of some gasoline. This requirement prompted an increase in the percentage of MtBE used in gasoline in the New England area currently to approximately 11 percent. There are few other uses of MtBE in normal commerce or industry.

If you didnt catch it thats 11 percent MTBE......
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 03:14 PM
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Originally Posted by DavidNJ
I'm looking forward to ethanol causing an end to grain subsidies. Let Archer Daniels Midland fend for itself!
No lie. Those guys have mounted the most successful lobby ever.

Dear Congress,

Please require the use of our product nationally so we have a market. Also, pay us for making it through subsidies. Oh and if its not too much trouble, tax the ever loving hell out of imported ethanol that competes with our product. Finally, blame oil and gas companies for the price increase in gasoline, which is really our fault due to the logisitcs of transport and production (shhhh!). Special shout out to GM for pretty much doing all the marketing for this for us in an attempt to look enivronmentally friendly, saving us money - you guys are great. We are trading at $42 a share; you guys should check us out!

Very Truly Yours,
ADM

PS, we make twenty five percent of ethanol in this country; thanks for the market control.
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 03:30 PM
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Originally Posted by DavidNJ
Actually, there is quite a big rush to build new capacity...worldwide. Gasoline, being the least expensive portable fuel, is the price regulating commodity. Those profits really aren't that large for the size of the company, they didn't exist forever in the past, and they won't exist forever in the future. However, it is those profits that drive new capacity.

And cantdrv65, on a different note, ethanol has less energy per unit volume or unit mass. You can tune to equivalent power, but mileage is a function of the energy stored. Compared to gas, it is a watered down drink.

I'm looking forward to ethanol causing an end to grain subsidies. Let Archer Daniels Midland fend for itself!
actually, our refinery system is pathetically old. our refinery system right now is running above 90% and has been for some time, yet gasoline inventories dropped 3.2 million barrels last week alone. the fact is, there isn't a rush to build and expand refineries. the reason being, when there is a tight supply like this, oil companies make more money. i realize that the margin of gasoline isn't as high as say, paper products or printer ink cartridges which turn hundreds of percent profit. that being said, oil companies still regulate how fast or how slow prices increase no matter what the market does. if gasoline drops on the new york merchantile exchange by 10 cents one day and holds, you can rest assure that the next day, gas will not drop 10 cents. they will drag that 10 cent drop out for 2 weeks. however, if the price of gasoline goes up, it rises almost instantaneously.

i'm very familiar with how gasoline/oil profits work as i follow oil trends on a daily basis. a good stock ticker to look at is "USO". it's the newly made united states oil fund. it nearly mirrors the price of oil on the commodities exchange. while it is priced a few dollars lower than oil per barrel (oil as of today is slightly above $74 a barrel while USO is trading a few cents under $70 at this second), the fund still shows whether or not oil went up today and roughly by how much. finance.yahoo.com/ is a great site to monitor this. i type in USO, it says it on my stock quotes page and i check on an hourly basis to see what oil is doing.
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 04:34 PM
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MTBE is based on methanol, but not actually comprised of it. Here's a link:

http://www.epa.gov/mtbe/gas.htm

For the record, methanol can be used for fuel, but its stoichiometric ratio is around 6:1 (vs gasoline's 14.7 and ethanol at 9:1). Not really the best choice.

I'm all for production of domestic ethanol from corn, sugar beets, switch grass, lawn clippings, whatever they can make work.....Especially if we can make fuel significantly less expensive (because if we're not careful, energy costs will put our country back in a recession) and lessen our dependence on foreign oil (and foreign ethanol too).

'JustDreamin'
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 04:36 PM
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I think you are trying to make gasoline and crude oil pricing a bit too simplistic. NYMEX and commodities trading is a microcosm unto itself, that depending on whom you ask, is either a great market tool or a tool of the devil. But it does not comprise the total of oil and gas pricing, it is just one aspect. I do think that right now we pay a premium for "security," or prices reacting (traders believing supply will be down or demand up) on world events like pipes blowing up in Nigeria, or trade deals between Venezuela and Russia. At it's core though, that is logical. If you expect it to be harder to buy later, you will ask more money.

Trading energy is tricky because the supply is always contrained and the demand is always there, so of course its going to go up fast and come down slow.
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 05:53 PM
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Originally Posted by JustDreamin
MTBE is based on methanol, but not actually comprised of it. Here's a link:

http://www.epa.gov/mtbe/gas.htm

For the record, methanol can be used for fuel, but its stoichiometric ratio is around 6:1 (vs gasoline's 14.7 and ethanol at 9:1). Not really the best choice.

I'm all for production of domestic ethanol from corn, sugar beets, switch grass, lawn clippings, whatever they can make work.....Especially if we can make fuel significantly less expensive (because if we're not careful, energy costs will put our country back in a recession) and lessen our dependence on foreign oil (and foreign ethanol too).

'JustDreamin'
The point Im making here is that MTBE does not have the BTU value of gasoline....Not even close. Worries about huge drops in vehicle mileage when using 10% ethanol to replace 11% MTBE are simply incorrect and unfounded.....
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Old Jul 27, 2006 | 07:11 PM
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Attached Thumbnails 10% Ethanol?-ethanol-mbte.jpg  
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