TAvsGN

Here is a decent article about the Blackbirds.

http://www.speedville.com/carl-black-black-bird-trans/

AronZ28

iTrader: (2)

That Yugo still would've rusted lol.

Yeah the 4th gen cars aren't really "collectible" yet, but I think they'll go through an uptick in value in about 10 years. Clean 3rd gen cars have risen in value quite a bit in recent years, and some 90's cars have really appreciated(air cooled 911's, NSX, Toyota Supra). These cars are still too new to really fall into "collectible" territory.

Firehawk 182

All collector cars have some roots in automotive history. The cars we've been talking about were created by Pontiac but the Blackbird was made by a guy who worked for Pontiac. Both have a history but time will tell how well the collector market values a car without a factory RPO. If they had come out that way I would have bet it would be sharing a similar aftermarket appreciation like the Buick GNX. I'd own one in a heartbeat- they are beautiful, fast, and very low production.
One other point I wanted to made- Makes NO difference that Pontiac is now gone except for the fact that we have all the Firebirds there ever will be and no super 700hp version can come along and be better.

tuske427

iTrader: (1)

I don't think they will be as collectible as the cars from the 60's/ early 70's are now. Many reasons have been said already so I won't repeat them. A few other things to consider which could affect the potential collectability of these cars is the future collector as well as the economy and conditions of the future. Let me explain- Many people today aren't nearly as into cars as the kids were in the 60's who are now the empty nesters/ people with disposable income buying these cars at the high prices they've drove them to. So the demand may not be as high. Also, as mentioned, the supply of 4th gens are greater. Combined these reasons help support a less overall value in the future.

Economy is straight forward. If it takes a dump/ society falls apart/ WW3 happens, then collecting/ values will also go down with it. What I mean by conditions of the future (wish I knew a better way to word it) is in 2050 there may not be that many gasoline stations around to make these cars easy to operate. Maybe gasoline for use on roads will be outlawed then? With the way cars are going now, and the push for environment/ low emissions, electric and automated cars, most cars will likely be automated electrics by then and most people may not even know how to drive anymore. Those that do/ could may be rare, or limited to off road leisurely entertainment (track day, etc). Kinda like how a model t/ brass era car is looked at today. a novel relic that really isn't practical for use on the street anymore. With that in mind people just may not want to collect them (and this applies to many more cars than just 4th gen F-bodies) in part because it'll be difficult just to operate them. The 50 year old muscle cars of today really only had to deal with a reduction of gasoline quality/ non leaded gas, so operating them today isn't do difficult to work around. Whatever the future will be in 50 years from today will be different than how the last 50 years was to today, and this, I believe, will have a negative impact on the future of collecting performance cars today as we know them. I hope I'm wrong.

RPM WS6

iTrader: (3)

I see what you're saying, but things may not be as different as you think in this particular regard. There is big money in oil, and as the environmental impact of electric automobiles (strain on power grid, mining/transportation/disposal of battery materials, etc.) is fully realized I don't know if it will ever (meaning foreseeable future) become the massive mainstream solution that gasoline is today. For example, many individuals used to think that nuclear power was sure to eventually eliminate coal, but recent disasters have caused some backpedaling in this area. It's hard to predict the future, but I wouldn't put all my eggs in the electric basket - at least not "electric cars" as we know them today.

Additionally, the average vehicle on American roadways continues to get older. People keep their cars longer due to rising replacement cost and improved service life. If that trend continues, it might not be surprising to eventually see the average car on the road being 15+ years old (current US average is 11-12 years.) As the current new car market is still fully saturated with gasoline powered, non-self driving vehicles, and I think it's safe to say that such will continue to be the case for the next decade at least, I wouldn't be surprised to see gas powered 2027 model year cars still regularly on the road in the 2040s.

Of course this is all just speculation, but many have predicted "big changes" in the past that either didn't happen or still haven't happened yet, so I'm taking a wait-and-see-without-too-much-worry approach.

AronZ28

iTrader: (2)

^ Agreed on the people keeping their cars longer now days. My daily driver is a 2004 Toyota Tacoma with 175k on the clock. Runs/shifts/rides/drives like a new truck, doesn't use any oil, no rust(live in the south), ie its rock solid reliable transportation. For about $400 worth of gear I replaced the door speakers, added 6x9 speakers behind the seats, and put in a new headunit that bluetooths my phone, streams music, does hands free calling, etc. Its not hard to get new car features in an old car if you are somewhat handy with a wrench and a wire stripper. As for the number of miles I drive, this truck should last another 7 to 10 years for me, assuming it makes it to 275k. As for the cost savings, I'm thinking of buying a Toyota Supra in the next year or two.

wssix99

iTrader: (5)

You are so right, the young people coming up today will never ever have disposable income.

wssix99

iTrader: (5)

I have one, too. (a 2005) I don't think it counts for this thread through. The Taco is a completely different type of thing, designed to survive a nuclear war.

eseibel67

iTrader: (10)

^I have been worrying about this exactly for the past 30 years. Now that I'm getting close to 50, I am no longer worried. I'm certain that I will have no problem finding 91 octane to burn for as many years as my aging left leg can still push a clutch pedal.

Every year GM, Toyota and VW produce 10 million new cars each. There is plenty of non-renewable crude oil in still in the earth. Especially since the ever escalating CAFE requirement (54 mpg by the year 2025) will leave plenty of extra gas for me to burn. It might even be cheaper in the future because the Arabs will surely keep pumping it.

This is my happy thought of the day.

Launch

As soon as cars become too over collectable and prices go through the roof, GM FORD MOPAR will make a new version of that car to steal back some of the sales.

70T/A400

iTrader: (2)

The one advantage the 4th Generation Trans Am's and Formula's have over the current cars is the raw driving experience.

There are no sounds of exhaust being piped in the sound system
There isn't five modes of transmission mapping you can select
There isn't a 4G LTE Wi-Fi hotspot following you around to tell on you

The car can be as loud or as quiet as you wish. You can improve its handling as far as a live axle can take you. You can get very good fuel economy with the stock camshaft or you can wring much more performance by increasing the camshaft lift and duration very easily. You cannot do this as easily with the LT direct injection engines these days. And increasingly, the manufacturers do not want us to tinker with our possessions.

I do not care if they appreciate or depreciate. I just want to drive one.

RebelExtrm02

iTrader: (3)

Not being tattled on is reason enough for me to stick with older cars for toys for as long as it is practical.

JosephIV

iTrader: (14)

There will be a market for Firehawks and CETAs and to a lesser extent, bone stock WS-6 cars, especially the rare combos as mentioned. Don't expect to make money unless you pick up a stock Firehawk for 12k now, sit on it for years, and sell it for 18k or a bit more. Can't happen you say? I could have picked up an '89 Turbo T/A for 9 grand when I was in the Navy in the lat 90's. That same car is going for $14k today. Nicer ones that went for $12k are now asking $20k. It may not be much, but the cars are appreciating.

There will be buyers who want their youth back and have expendable income. It's why old schmucks have driven classic muscle car prices into the stratosphere. At one time 3rd gen Z28's of early 90's vintage were cheap and a nice one cost $4,500. They're creeping up in price and you can't find a nice one for less than $6k.

RPM WS6

iTrader: (3)

Firehawks generally haven't proven as popular as the WS6 cars, people generally tend to be less interested in the Firehawk hood. Highly SLP optioned Firehawks might beat the value of an otherwise comparable WS6, but in general it seems that WS6 T/A will be the most sought after of the LS1 years. Firehawks are technically a bit faster with the dual/dual exhaust stock (and more so when the Blackwing lid became available), but it's not enough to drastically increase demand over WS6 as everyone looking to "collect" one of these knows that an LS1 is an LS1. Firehawk is more rare, but rarity only equals additional value when it also becomes highly desirable - as far as can be seen from today, it's the WS6 (though not nearly as rare) that carries the title of most desirable.

Too many CETAs have been stashed and nobody seems to be selling nice ones for anything less than top dollar. It's a love it or hate it color/stripe kit. Probably not much money to be made there in the foreseeable future.

A mid-mile WS6 car that's stock would probably be the best growth investment at this point, for someone who wants to live in that world. You can still find some great deals from time to time on those 40-65k mile examples in really nice shape, a couple have been recently discussed on this site (e.g. ~$10k or less for a 40-50k mile example.) Do a major detailing, replace anything cosmetic that's not up to par with nice used/NOS (or GM parts counter new if still available) pieces, then prevent any further deterioration and use it sparingly. A car like that will likely realize the biggest gain from current purchase price to future sale price over the mid-long term. The super low mile garage queen show cars of today are already mostly owned by individuals looking for top dollar, and priced too high to post much in the way of gains in the foreseeable future IMO.

Regardless, I wouldn't get involved with this for the purpose of investment growth IMO. The examples posted above ($12k to $20k for a TTA over the last 16+ years) might be a great return for a used car, but it's pretty poor for an overall investment over that period (plus you'd have to subtract cost of insurance, any storage, and maintenance over that 16 year period.)

Nothing wrong with collecting a car you like for reasons of personal use and enjoyment, if it happens to appreciate in value then that's a bonus - but buying any car for the hope of mid-long term value gain/investment growth is too risky and very unlikely to match the returns of more traditional investments over the same period (especially when factoring the costs of ownership.)

eseibel67

iTrader: (10)

This is all very true. As with all financial scenarios, supply and demand set the pace.

By the time the LS1 Trans Am was being manufactured new, the 1960's musclecar frenzy was not only well established and escalating, but in full flight with no correction in sight. Many prospectors erroneously bought a new LS1 Trans Am new and moth balled it. That's why there is never ending supply of no-mile cars on the market that can be had for significantly less than original MSRP. And these are the guys that have recognized the trend and are cutting their losses. Can you imagine how many more are still under wraps?

It's a buyer's market. I'm thinking about buying one that's been pickled properly to use as a daily driver. Can get one for the same price as a tarted up 2017 Hyundai sh!tbox.

JosephIV

iTrader: (14)

I understand your statement, and can agree that more people look for a WS6 than a Firehawk. I think the general public can see a "Ram Air" Trans Am and get that it's different than a regular Trans Am. That same public has no clue what a Firehawk is which is different from a collector who will see value in owning the low production # SOM Formula Firehawk or Maple Red Metallic Firehawk. If you're in it to turn a profit on a future collectible I think the safest bet is an Anniversary T/A. Current trends aren't indicators of future trends. There was a time when you couldn't give away a Mopar wing car. Now you can't touch one for anything less than 401k money.

RPM WS6

iTrader: (3)

If this does happen to be the case, then likely a Formula WS6 would be the better bet, especially in a color other than black or red. The problem is, nothing about what makes these cars rare is particularly speical in terms of performance. Value premiums for hoods and badges and rare colors can only go so high. Original era muscle cars of big value, relatively rare or not, generally included special engines with much more performance than their garden variety counterparts.

Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Regardless, one must also be prepared for a shift away from these cars in general - or at least no further increases in demand. The future may not see any more value in these cars than the inflation-adjusted prices of today.

Definitely not something to bank on with any of these LS1 cars, for the reasons well stated by eseibel67 above and, again, the lack of any special engines/drivetrains in any of the various V8 trim levels.

zman1969

iTrader: (91)

I think by now most cars have been driven in the ground and gone either crushed, rusted or wrecked and low mile cars will be collectible. Kids that were teenagers when these were current will want these cars because they were the bomb! then and they couldnt be afforded when theyve gotten older and have spending money there will be a demand! this is why I dont plan on selling my 69 Z28 I bought in 87 when my other Z was wrecked by another driver I bought it in '78

Ruffturbo911

Well said!

hawk584

iTrader: (1)

As a dedicated Firehawk guy my opinion of the Firehawk being less desirable than a WS6 is based off lack of knowledge and exposure. Take a Firehawk to a car show or to the local cars and coffee and you'll more than likely be asked, "What's a Firehawk?". Firehawk market is all over the board depending mostly on mileage and what someone thinks their car is worth. From $10k all the way up to $40k for the same year make and model and somewhat close mileage. I've seen not as rare black 2002 ta hawks with $40k reserves and more rare 10th anniversary Hawks go for mid to high teens. SOM is in my mind one of the most desirable of all firehawks but nothing compares to the OG 1992 Hawks. Comp TA's, sure nothing crazy regarding performance enhancements but they are all numbered. Only 164 between '95-97. About 5050 Firehawks between '92-02(excluding the one that isn't really a Firehawk in the eyes of most hawk enthusiasts)