Don't Overpay: Specialty Car "Bubble" is Deflating
#1
LS1Tech Administrator
Thread Starter
iTrader: (3)
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Schiller Park, IL Member: #317
Posts: 32,315
Likes: 0
Received 1,748 Likes
on
1,251 Posts
![](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/ranks/ls1tech20year.png)
![Exclamation](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon4.gif)
In recent months, I've mentioned in several posts that the hyperinflated "special interest/collector" car prices have begun to noticeably wane, and I've cautioned folks not to fall for listing prices that are not at the cutting edge of this trend (i.e. don't overpay, as those overpriced cars won't sell at 2022 prices any longer). Obviously, cars at the very high end of the collector scale may not be as subject to this trend as those examples that are more average/typical, so there are of course exceptions. I read this article today which also highlighted the same trend:
Bring a Trailer's sales top $1.4B despite classic car 'bubble' correction
Here is the most telling part of the article:
"However a jump in total unit sales of 19% with revenue climbing only 2% means prices per lot came down, and they did. The average price per car sold at auction on Bring a Trailer fell to $54K from $59.5K the year before. 'There was a big bubble in 2022, people were spending money like crazy on cars, on other things, and 2023 corrected that,' said Randy Nonnenberg, Bring a Trailer CEO in an interview with Yahoo Finance."
I know a lot of folks got excited about how much their nice, low mile 4th gen was suddenly worth in the market of 2022 and some folks took this to mean that there was finally a massive "real" value increase in these cars. While they do continue to gain some amount of real value (and interest) in their own niche of the collector world, much of that rapid jump was inflationary and NOT real value. And it wasn't just the 4th gen F-bodies; I watched the average prices for cars like my '71 go up by 40-50% seemingly overnight. That too has scaled back, like most other classics and antiques.
I still see some ads pop up here and there with 2022-level prices, so shoppers just entering this market might not have been watching the recent trend and, in a moment of "FOMO", said shoppers might not be aware that they have negotiating power in this latest market. So just be sure to cross-shop some comparables in your respective local market before making a purchase at "bubble" pricing that is dwindling.
Bring a Trailer's sales top $1.4B despite classic car 'bubble' correction
Here is the most telling part of the article:
"However a jump in total unit sales of 19% with revenue climbing only 2% means prices per lot came down, and they did. The average price per car sold at auction on Bring a Trailer fell to $54K from $59.5K the year before. 'There was a big bubble in 2022, people were spending money like crazy on cars, on other things, and 2023 corrected that,' said Randy Nonnenberg, Bring a Trailer CEO in an interview with Yahoo Finance."
I know a lot of folks got excited about how much their nice, low mile 4th gen was suddenly worth in the market of 2022 and some folks took this to mean that there was finally a massive "real" value increase in these cars. While they do continue to gain some amount of real value (and interest) in their own niche of the collector world, much of that rapid jump was inflationary and NOT real value. And it wasn't just the 4th gen F-bodies; I watched the average prices for cars like my '71 go up by 40-50% seemingly overnight. That too has scaled back, like most other classics and antiques.
I still see some ads pop up here and there with 2022-level prices, so shoppers just entering this market might not have been watching the recent trend and, in a moment of "FOMO", said shoppers might not be aware that they have negotiating power in this latest market. So just be sure to cross-shop some comparables in your respective local market before making a purchase at "bubble" pricing that is dwindling.
The following users liked this post:
NC01TA (02-13-2024)
The following users liked this post:
NC01TA (02-13-2024)
#3
TECH Addict
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
Seems to be across the board in my unscientific observation.
stuff just isn’t moving like it used to.
people are still posting stuff up for sale at inflated prices but it’s easy to see what stuff is listed at yet almost impossible to see what things actually are selling for in the general market.
i just bought a car that was listed for 8500 then 6500 two weeks later then 5500 a week later and I paid 4700.
lots of the same model for 6500-8500 and up for sale but they don’t seem to be moving.
stuff just isn’t moving like it used to.
people are still posting stuff up for sale at inflated prices but it’s easy to see what stuff is listed at yet almost impossible to see what things actually are selling for in the general market.
i just bought a car that was listed for 8500 then 6500 two weeks later then 5500 a week later and I paid 4700.
lots of the same model for 6500-8500 and up for sale but they don’t seem to be moving.
#4
TECH Junkie
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
Good advice by RPM WS6 but there is still something amiss in the market. I always wondered how some folks got their money to spend on such high dollar cars during this 'bubble' Somehow the high prices were supported by many. Overall inflation didn't seem to matter one bit, except to low and middle class working folks, and retirees like me who are on fixed incomes.
When I had to replace my Mustang in Aug 2022 I was unable to buy a new Mustang and saw that the low mileage one owner cars were extremely high (part of the bubble). I wasn't sure what to do but kept looking and found a low mileage convertible at a dealership in a cold weather state (Wisconsin). It was still priced too high, about $4,000 or so too high but we took a shot and brought our old Mustang up there to see what they would do on a trade-in. They gave us about that $4,000 extra and it all worked out, but specialty cars, actually most muscle or sports cars, are still very high, and may be the exception to the rule since no one is making them anymore. Looking at ebay, I see nothing affordable except cars in fair condition or with high mileage..
With Camaro and Mopar products stopped, I don't expect a big correction no matter what the economy does. Mopar dealers are mostly over window sticker for the remaining Challengers out there and although I have not been looking, I have a feeling the Chevy dealers are not selling Camaros for great prices either. I really don't know. I am 'out of it' in today's economy. I'm just glad I'm not in a situation where I need to buy again.
When I had to replace my Mustang in Aug 2022 I was unable to buy a new Mustang and saw that the low mileage one owner cars were extremely high (part of the bubble). I wasn't sure what to do but kept looking and found a low mileage convertible at a dealership in a cold weather state (Wisconsin). It was still priced too high, about $4,000 or so too high but we took a shot and brought our old Mustang up there to see what they would do on a trade-in. They gave us about that $4,000 extra and it all worked out, but specialty cars, actually most muscle or sports cars, are still very high, and may be the exception to the rule since no one is making them anymore. Looking at ebay, I see nothing affordable except cars in fair condition or with high mileage..
With Camaro and Mopar products stopped, I don't expect a big correction no matter what the economy does. Mopar dealers are mostly over window sticker for the remaining Challengers out there and although I have not been looking, I have a feeling the Chevy dealers are not selling Camaros for great prices either. I really don't know. I am 'out of it' in today's economy. I'm just glad I'm not in a situation where I need to buy again.
The following users liked this post:
Y2K_Frenzy (02-13-2024)
#6
Launching!
iTrader: (3)
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
Nice recap. I watched the terminator crowd go from mid 20's for decent examples to low 40's and they are slowly creeping back down. I see a lot of that crowd trying to command mid 30's but the guys that need to sell seem to be getting high 20's. Tried to sell my 98 Z28, got some mild interest and the typical "7k cash right now" offers but ultimately I'm going to just keep it for a bit longer.
#7
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
Good advice by RPM WS6 but there is still something amiss in the market. I always wondered how some folks got their money to spend on such high dollar cars during this 'bubble' Somehow the high prices were supported by many. Overall inflation didn't seem to matter one bit, except to low and middle class working folks, and retirees like me who are on fixed incomes.
When I had to replace my Mustang in Aug 2022 I was unable to buy a new Mustang and saw that the low mileage one owner cars were extremely high (part of the bubble). I wasn't sure what to do but kept looking and found a low mileage convertible at a dealership in a cold weather state (Wisconsin). It was still priced too high, about $4,000 or so too high but we took a shot and brought our old Mustang up there to see what they would do on a trade-in. They gave us about that $4,000 extra and it all worked out, but specialty cars, actually most muscle or sports cars, are still very high, and may be the exception to the rule since no one is making them anymore. Looking at ebay, I see nothing affordable except cars in fair condition or with high mileage..
With Camaro and Mopar products stopped, I don't expect a big correction no matter what the economy does. Mopar dealers are mostly over window sticker for the remaining Challengers out there and although I have not been looking, I have a feeling the Chevy dealers are not selling Camaros for great prices either. I really don't know. I am 'out of it' in today's economy. I'm just glad I'm not in a situation where I need to buy again.
When I had to replace my Mustang in Aug 2022 I was unable to buy a new Mustang and saw that the low mileage one owner cars were extremely high (part of the bubble). I wasn't sure what to do but kept looking and found a low mileage convertible at a dealership in a cold weather state (Wisconsin). It was still priced too high, about $4,000 or so too high but we took a shot and brought our old Mustang up there to see what they would do on a trade-in. They gave us about that $4,000 extra and it all worked out, but specialty cars, actually most muscle or sports cars, are still very high, and may be the exception to the rule since no one is making them anymore. Looking at ebay, I see nothing affordable except cars in fair condition or with high mileage..
With Camaro and Mopar products stopped, I don't expect a big correction no matter what the economy does. Mopar dealers are mostly over window sticker for the remaining Challengers out there and although I have not been looking, I have a feeling the Chevy dealers are not selling Camaros for great prices either. I really don't know. I am 'out of it' in today's economy. I'm just glad I'm not in a situation where I need to buy again.
Trending Topics
#8
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
Nice recap. I watched the terminator crowd go from mid 20's for decent examples to low 40's and they are slowly creeping back down. I see a lot of that crowd trying to command mid 30's but the guys that need to sell seem to be getting high 20's. Tried to sell my 98 Z28, got some mild interest and the typical "7k cash right now" offers but ultimately I'm going to just keep it for a bit longer.
Last edited by Y2K_Frenzy; 02-13-2024 at 04:34 PM.
The following users liked this post:
NC01TA (02-14-2024)
#9
LS1Tech Administrator
Thread Starter
iTrader: (3)
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Schiller Park, IL Member: #317
Posts: 32,315
Likes: 0
Received 1,748 Likes
on
1,251 Posts
![](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/ranks/ls1tech20year.png)
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
I always wondered how some folks got their money to spend on such high dollar cars during this 'bubble' Somehow the high prices were supported by many. Overall inflation didn't seem to matter one bit, except to low and middle class working folks, and retirees like me who are on fixed incomes.
When I had to replace my Mustang in Aug 2022 I was unable to buy a new Mustang and saw that the low mileage one owner cars were extremely high (part of the bubble). I wasn't sure what to do but kept looking and found a low mileage convertible at a dealership in a cold weather state (Wisconsin). It was still priced too high, about $4,000 or so too high but we took a shot and brought our old Mustang up there to see what they would do on a trade-in. They gave us about that $4,000 extra and it all worked out, but specialty cars, actually most muscle or sports cars, are still very high, and may be the exception to the rule since no one is making them anymore. Looking at ebay, I see nothing affordable except cars in fair condition or with high mileage..
With Camaro and Mopar products stopped, I don't expect a big correction no matter what the economy does. Mopar dealers are mostly over window sticker for the remaining Challengers out there and although I have not been looking, I have a feeling the Chevy dealers are not selling Camaros for great prices either. I really don't know. I am 'out of it' in today's economy. I'm just glad I'm not in a situation where I need to buy again.
With Camaro and Mopar products stopped, I don't expect a big correction no matter what the economy does. Mopar dealers are mostly over window sticker for the remaining Challengers out there and although I have not been looking, I have a feeling the Chevy dealers are not selling Camaros for great prices either. I really don't know. I am 'out of it' in today's economy. I'm just glad I'm not in a situation where I need to buy again.
The following users liked this post:
NC01TA (02-14-2024)
#10
Launching!
iTrader: (2)
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
I agree with your theory that the 4th Gen market got overheated in 2021-2023. And what goes up, usually goes up too high and then there is a pullback. The same increases are seen in the stock market and in real estate.
What drives these purchases are emotions. You were young when the 1998 Pontiac Trans Am WS6 came out but couldn't afford it. Now you can. You find a car in a very gently used condition and since the years may not have been as kind to your body as they have to the Poncho, you buy it.
All that matters is you enjoy it. Don't stare at it or go to a field with men in suspenders. Driving that car is the most rewarding experience you can have.
Drive
What drives these purchases are emotions. You were young when the 1998 Pontiac Trans Am WS6 came out but couldn't afford it. Now you can. You find a car in a very gently used condition and since the years may not have been as kind to your body as they have to the Poncho, you buy it.
All that matters is you enjoy it. Don't stare at it or go to a field with men in suspenders. Driving that car is the most rewarding experience you can have.
Drive
#11
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
This is where auction prices can at least give us a window of trends, especially for platforms and examples that are not super-ultra rare with little or no comparables. The other way to tell is watching the ads that sit forever vs. the ads that disappear quickly and/or have continually dropping prices until they disappear, exactly as illustrated in your example below:
If you're watching comparables for long enough, you'll eventually be able to tell almost instantly if a car will sell quickly or sit forever at a given price. Regardless of the broader market conditions, there are always dreamers who seem to think they are selling gold and will price their cars as such regardless of the comparables and/or how long the car sits. These ads can usually be quickly identified when they contain statements like, "I know what I have" (or some version of this) - that one almost always appears with a price that is MUCH too high is a huge indicator that the seller likely hasn't a clue of the actual market. But right now is a period of pricing transition (falling), so some of the overpriced cars aren't so much a matter of the seller hoping they have a winning lotto ticket on their hands, but just their misunderstanding of where the leading edge of the market is headed. And, if they're lucky, then might even find a buyer (who also doesn't yet know better) at that outdated price. However, folks who actually want to sell their car will eventually figure out the market conditions one way or another, and will adjust their price accordingly (as happened in your case).
Some if it was done with home equity. Home values were climbing much faster than interest rates at the beginning of all this, so refinancing and use of cash from such was one factor (I personally know of people who did this). Folks weren't doing some of the things they used to do before the scamdemic (vacations/travel and such), so that money was funneled into more "things" (including toys like collector cars) vs. "experiences" for a time. Rapidly increasing interest rates put a damper on this, and is likely one of the main factors that cooled the market.
I can't speak to the near-new/late model market, I don't really follow it and pricing trends there tend to be more closely tied to dealer mark-ups AND availability (or lack thereof) of the latest model of the same nameplate. In terms of antique/classic special interest type cars though, considering most 4th gen F-bodies are now solidly antiques, they just aren't moving at those old 2022 prices. Another telling factor is the falling prices and stale ads from some of the larger local specialty dealers that I watch. Even the truly "collectible" type 4th gens have cooled and the ads for these cars either linger forever or have begun to show declining prices. All of this seems to be exactly in line with the decreasing overall values referenced by the BaT CEO in the article above.
If you're watching comparables for long enough, you'll eventually be able to tell almost instantly if a car will sell quickly or sit forever at a given price. Regardless of the broader market conditions, there are always dreamers who seem to think they are selling gold and will price their cars as such regardless of the comparables and/or how long the car sits. These ads can usually be quickly identified when they contain statements like, "I know what I have" (or some version of this) - that one almost always appears with a price that is MUCH too high is a huge indicator that the seller likely hasn't a clue of the actual market. But right now is a period of pricing transition (falling), so some of the overpriced cars aren't so much a matter of the seller hoping they have a winning lotto ticket on their hands, but just their misunderstanding of where the leading edge of the market is headed. And, if they're lucky, then might even find a buyer (who also doesn't yet know better) at that outdated price. However, folks who actually want to sell their car will eventually figure out the market conditions one way or another, and will adjust their price accordingly (as happened in your case).
Some if it was done with home equity. Home values were climbing much faster than interest rates at the beginning of all this, so refinancing and use of cash from such was one factor (I personally know of people who did this). Folks weren't doing some of the things they used to do before the scamdemic (vacations/travel and such), so that money was funneled into more "things" (including toys like collector cars) vs. "experiences" for a time. Rapidly increasing interest rates put a damper on this, and is likely one of the main factors that cooled the market.
I can't speak to the near-new/late model market, I don't really follow it and pricing trends there tend to be more closely tied to dealer mark-ups AND availability (or lack thereof) of the latest model of the same nameplate. In terms of antique/classic special interest type cars though, considering most 4th gen F-bodies are now solidly antiques, they just aren't moving at those old 2022 prices. Another telling factor is the falling prices and stale ads from some of the larger local specialty dealers that I watch. Even the truly "collectible" type 4th gens have cooled and the ads for these cars either linger forever or have begun to show declining prices. All of this seems to be exactly in line with the decreasing overall values referenced by the BaT CEO in the article above.
The following users liked this post:
wannafbody (02-13-2024)
#12
TECH Addict
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
It’s a toss up. 99.999% of drivers don’t give a **** one way or the other. Cars are appliances. Do you look at your microwave or coffee maker longing for a sexier appearance?
#13
TECH Veteran
iTrader: (2)
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
When you are looking at the super top end collectable cars, that comes down to people who have too much money or are trying to lose it for some reason. Some of these cars seem more like money laundering than buying a car. As for the local dealership stuff, it kind of comes down to how many of a particular car is for sale at any one time. 4th gen TA's are on the rarer side of the listings. There's tons of Mustangs in comparison.
#14
LS1Tech Administrator
Thread Starter
iTrader: (3)
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Schiller Park, IL Member: #317
Posts: 32,315
Likes: 0
Received 1,748 Likes
on
1,251 Posts
![](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/ranks/ls1tech20year.png)
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
Do you think the F body and the likes from every other mfg will be more or less sought after in say 4-5 years when every new car on the road is an egg shaped “crossover” with a 4 cylinder turbo? Non-egg shaped automobiles are becoming a thing of the past if the current trend stays the same. Chevy is down to one “car,” the Malibu, and Ford is down to just one as well, which is the Mustang.
![Icon Lol](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/smilies2/icon_lol.gif)
The highest tier isn't really a reliable gauge of overall market conditions because those folks are generally well insulated from the sort of cyclical (or even more serious event-related) financial woes that would impact those of us who are not in the top 1%. Also, there aren't a ton of automobiles that fall into the "elite/concours" tier in general, so you won't see a bunch of examples from which to draw a definitive conclusion. Often, when cars like those cross the auction block, the sale price represents a moment in time that has more to do with the exact car and the bidders in question than the overall market as a whole.
The following users liked this post:
NC01TA (02-14-2024)
The following users liked this post:
Y2K_Frenzy (02-14-2024)
#17
TECH Junkie
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
![](https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/ls1tech.com-vbulletin/1100x825/coyote_engine_1__fe8477ccf16b7caef78d38a0aa9590c8e3200caa.jpg)
#19
Launching!
iTrader: (3)
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
A lot of credit unions, if the value is there and you have $$ down, will loan you for older cars. This topic also made me go back and revisit the Ferrari F430. Pre-covid those cars in good shape under 30k miles could be had for ~85k. Once we hit the boom and people were making money, rates were low, I would see 30k mile F430's asking $110-$120k. They have since gotten sub $100k but its a good example of what @RPM WS6 is talking about. @NC01TA I agree, the coyote is much more comfotbale and has a ton of potential for big hp numbers without having to fool with the bottom end.
The following users liked this post:
NC01TA (02-14-2024)
#20
LS1Tech Administrator
Thread Starter
iTrader: (3)
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Schiller Park, IL Member: #317
Posts: 32,315
Likes: 0
Received 1,748 Likes
on
1,251 Posts
![](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/ranks/ls1tech20year.png)
![Default](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/icons/icon1.gif)
All this talk about the '03/'04 Cobras reminds me of how interested I was in buying one of those back then as well. In that era, I worked with a guy who's wife was a long time employee at a Ford dealer. I went to an event at that dealership where they "unveiled" a Mystichrome Cobra convertible - what a cool looking car that was. His wife could've gotten me an incredible deal on a new Cobra at that time, but lack of an auto trans option was the only thing stopping me...so I ended up buying yet another LS1 car instead.
I generally like everything to be basic and "manual" control in my cars, except for the transmission. That's the only reason Ford lost me on that sale. I still very much like those cars though.
![Happy](https://ls1tech.com/forums/images/smilies/LS1Tech/gr_stretch.gif)
The following 2 users liked this post by RPM WS6:
NC01TA (02-14-2024), Y2K_Frenzy (02-14-2024)